Date updated:07-12-2008
Summary of the bullish and bearish positions mentioned in the July 12th, 2008 Barron's.

-
NDAQ
Nasdaq Omx Group - $25.82
- -3.44%
- $27.06
The stock, down sharply since last November, could climb by 50% over the next two or three years as the world's securities exchanges continue to consolidate.

-
DEO
Diageo Plc Ads Ne - $57.57
- -1.49%
- $56.42
Beverage-maker Diageo's shares look to have more than 30% upside after recent worries about U.S. sales sent the stock down. So far, revenues have stayed on track.

-
DD
Du Pont E I De Ne - $27.65
- +5.01%
- $26.69
Investors may be tempted by Dow's depressed valuation and 5% dividend yield, but it's tough to have much confidence in management. DuPont (DD) may be a better bet in chemicals at around $42, or 12 times projected 2008 profits of $3.50 a share. P.J. Juvekar, the chemical analyst at Citigroup, wrote Friday that the Rohm & Haas deal heightens DuPont's appeal because its business mix looks similar to that of Rohm & Haas. DuPont also has an attractive agricultural and seed business. He estimated DuPont is worth $60 on a sum-of-the-parts basis.

-
DOW
Dow Chemical - $16.05
- +6.64%
- $15.71
The $78-a-share purchase price translates into about 21 times Rohm's estimated 2008 profits of $3.70 a share, and nearly 12 times estimated 2008 pre-tax cash flow, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. By comparison, Dow Chemical trades for under 10 times projected '08 profits of $3.30 a share, and less than six times estimated '08 pre-tax cash flow of $6.7 billion. "Dow overpaid," says Frank Mitsch, an analyst at BB&T Capital Markets in New York, who cut his rating on the buyer's stock to Hold from Buy.

-
NCX
Nova Chemicals Co - $6.09
- +9.14%
- $5.74
Nova Chemicals is a standout in North America -- one reason its shares are off only 26% this year, compared with the 75% drubbing suffered by commodity-chemical companies. But that also means its shares might have further to fall. Prices of ethylene -- a base alkene used to synthesize many chemicals -- is in a down cycle that may not hit bottom until 2010, and additional capacity in the second half in the Middle East could spell more trouble. "In particular, we are worried that this cyclical decline based on Middle East capacity additions would be hastened by the onset of an economic downturn," notes Citigroup analyst P.J. Juvekar, who downgraded Nova last week and cut his price target to 21 from 25. He now expects Nova to earn $1.46 a share in 2009 -- down from $2. Separately, chemical giant BASF (BASFY) also told investors to expect margin pressure well into 2011. At about 25, Nova shares could come under more pressure if other analysts, too, begin trimming their estimates; The consensus price target is still a rather hefty 33.

-
QLGC
Qlogic Corporatio - $13.56
- +1.50%
- $13.38
QLogic sells primarily to original equipment manufacturers and its 10 biggest customers drive nearly 85% of revenue. Its business is hardly discretionary, it enjoys pricing power, and the recently acquired InfiniBand operation could drive further growth. At about 15, volatile shares are up 7% this year -- enviable in 2008 but hardly outrageous given its recent habit of beating estimates. Shares fetch 13.5 times 2009 profits -- in line with peers and reasonable when you consider how its 22% net profit margin is twice as good as the computer-storage sector.

-
OSG
Overseas Shiphdlg - $46.18
- +6.43%
- $43.88
OSG's undervalued shares have struggled since reaching 89 last year, and its modest dividend hasn't helped its cause. But Lazard Capital analyst Urs Dur thinks its net assets are worth more than $100 a share and are "a solid fit" for Fredriksen's group of companies, which also includes Golag LNG (GLNG). OSG's model is more complex and personnel-intensive than Frontline's, its position in U.S. flag operator OSG America potentially tricky for foreign owners, and "credit is tight even for blue-chip shippers," he notes. Still, OSG has a solid balance sheet, good management and plans to buy back shares. His price target: 89.

-
PEO
Pet Res - $21.74
- +1.87%
- $21.87
Meantime, why not shop for dollars on sale for 85 cents? The fear-induced selling by retail investors has widened discounts on closed-end funds once again. Petroleum & Resources (PEO), a decades-old pool of large energy stocks, last week fell to about a 15% discount to net asset value, the widest in eight years. Similarly, BlackRock Global Energy & Resources (BGR) gapped to an 18% discount, its largest ever. Cheap, regardless of the short-term path of energy stocks.
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