Date updated:04-19-2008
Summary of the bullish and bearish positions mentioned in the April 19th, 2008 Barron's.

-
DELL
Dell Inc. - $15.54
- +4.58%
- $15.00
Dell shares could be revalued downward by as much as 25% if they traded in line with similar companies. At best, the stock is dead money. Steer clear until Dell delivers results.

-
KMB
Kimberly Clark Cp - $64.10
- +0.61%
- $63.71
The stock will reflect the rewards of price hikes, cost cuts and product innovation. Look for double-digit total returns, including dividends.

-
TIM.TO
Timminco Ltd - $2.10
- 0.00%
- $1.81
Because of their astronomical price, Timminco shares are vulnerable if solar silicon falls to meet expectations. Given the concentrated ownership, valuing the stock is tricky.

-
GOOG
Google Inc. - $562.51
- +2.07%
- $554.99
In my March 31 column, I noted that with Google down in the mid-400s, trading at one times growth or less, the stock has reached a valuation level where it might make sense to start building a position. Given last week's action, it looks as if that may have been the bottom. But even now the stock is just a hair over 20 times estimated 2009 earnings; compare that with the roughly 56 times 2009 Street forecasts that Microsoft (MSFT) is offering for Yahoo! (YHOO). That leads me to several conclusions. One, Google is still a pretty cheap stock, even after the post-earnings rally in the shares. And two, as I have asserted repeatedly in this space, Yahoo! holders are hallucinating if they think YHOO shares will see the happy side of $30 for a long time to come if MSFT were to walk away from its $31-a-share stock-and-cash bid. At 25 times estimated '09 earnings of 55 cents, Yahoo! shares would trade for a tad under $14. You sure $31 isn't enough, Jerry?

-
GOOG
Google Inc. - $562.51
- +2.07%
- $554.99
In my March 31 column, I noted that with Google down in the mid-400s, trading at one times growth or less, the stock has reached a valuation level where it might make sense to start building a position. Given last week's action, it looks as if that may have been the bottom. But even now the stock is just a hair over 20 times estimated 2009 earnings; compare that with the roughly 56 times 2009 Street forecasts that Microsoft (MSFT) is offering for Yahoo! (YHOO). That leads me to several conclusions. One, Google is still a pretty cheap stock, even after the post-earnings rally in the shares. And two, as I have asserted repeatedly in this space, Yahoo! holders are hallucinating if they think YHOO shares will see the happy side of $30 for a long time to come if MSFT were to walk away from its $31-a-share stock-and-cash bid. At 25 times estimated '09 earnings of 55 cents, Yahoo! shares would trade for a tad under $14. You sure $31 isn't enough, Jerry?

-
AMD
Adv Micro Devices - $5.21
- +3.37%
- $5.12
But I can't help thinking that AMD has become damaged merchandise, a company that will at best continue to frustrate investors and at worst could find itself headed for a financial crisis. Buying Intel shares is a bet on the continued strength of the PC business. Buying AMD shares is a speculation on the company's ability to extricate itself from both nasty competitive issues and a financial mess. Seems like an easy choice.

-
NOK
Nokia Cp Ads - $13.57
- +2.73%
- $13.62
Take Nokia (NOK), for example. Last week it reported a 25% jump in quarterly profits based on robust growth in emerging markets -- where everybody wants to be -- and it reiterated its earlier forecast of nearly 10% growth for the mobile-phone industry in 2008. So what happens? Its shares get pummeled, sinking as much as 14% on Thursday to 18.12. Why? Poor communication, mostly. In their earnings call, Nokia brass said that the value of the wireless-handset market would fall in euro terms because of the weaker dollar and an expected economic slowdown. Unfortunately, this currency-translation issue was misread by the market, despite having been telegraphed in previous quarters. Nokia was addressing the weak dollar's impact on the handset market as it relates to currency conversion -- not Nokia revenues. What's more, one Nokia bull insists that, comparing apples and apples, Nokia was simply sticking with its prediction that the handset market will grow 10% this year. Nothing changed.

-
BIDU
Baidu - $425.87
- +3.94%
- $416.77
IS BAIDU.COM, THE REIGNING CHAMP of Chinese internet companies, about to stumble again? A recent surge has taken Baidu (BIDU) to $324 a share, or 80 times average estimated 2008 earnings -- versus Google's (GOOG) 22 times forward earnings. It's "priced for perfection," says Canacord Adams analyst Colin Gillis, who has a Sell rating on the American Depositary Shares. Most sell-side analysts, however, are pretty bullish about Baidu's long-term prospects. It does, after all, hold 60% of the Internet-search market in China. Yet institutional shareholders are treading carefully. "With the stock above $300 again, we're on the sidelines," says Ryan Jacob, who manages the Jacob Internet Fund (JAMFX).
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A. ETF'S that trade futures should be
abolished. ditto leveraged ETFs
A. The only one I own : SLX,
too hard pick a winner out all of them
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