Principal's shares have rallied smartly this month, but they still trade at just a conservative book-value estimate near 14. Within a year, they could reach 22.

Nintendo shares are down 25% since Jan. 1, but a careful look suggests that they're due for a comeback, with profits at the cash-rich company likely to be up 45% this year.

Agrium's stock was hard hit by commodities' selloff, but could rally roughly 21%, to $61, as the global economy improves.

The three public Citi preferred issues -- Series AA, T and F trade at a big discount to the common's current exchange value. Why? Since the exchange was announced in late February, it's been virtually impossible to short-sell Citigroup shares (C), and that prevents arbitragers from collapsing the spread by buying the preferred and shorting the common. The AA and F series preferred (with a face value of $25) were trading late Friday around $19, roughly $8 below the exchange offer's current value. The series T (with a face value of $50) was fetching about $34, versus an exchange value of $48. Citi common closed at $3.65. The series AA and F preferred will be swapped for 7.31 Citi shares; the series T, for 13.1. Investors must be careful to buy the right security. The AA issue can be traded as series P on the New York Stock Exchange and the F series as series M. These preferred issues offer a potential return of 40%, assuming Citi common's price holds after completion of the exchange offer, which is likely to get under way in early May after the release of the government's bank stress-test findings. If the common's price holds, preferred buyers would effectively be getting it for just $2.60. There had been speculation that Citi might cap the upside on the preferred, but its chief financial officer, Ned Kelly, said Friday that he doesn't envision such a scenario. Citi reported first-quarter net of $1.6 billion Friday, or about 30 cents a share, before $1.3 billion in preferred stock dividends and another $1.3 billion of non-cash expense. It was Citi's best quarter in two years. Citi common trades below its estimated tangible book value of $3.80 a share after the exchange offer. In fact, it has one of the lowest tangible-book ratios among major financials. And the preferred offers an even cheaper way to buy Citi.

Little expectation seems to be pinned on McDonald's (MCD) earnings report Wednesday. Shares up just 8% from its 2009 low lag behind both the restaurant sector's 15% rise and the broad market's even bigger jump, chiefly as investors funnel money from staid quality toward riskier but sexier bets. Despite a 1.4% increase in February sales (more if it weren't for the extra day a year ago, which was a leap year), concerns linger about an indifferent European burger appetite and the drag from the stronger dollar.Decent March and first-quarter numbers come Wednesday will help focus attention back on the burger king, as will the continued expansion of new McCafe offerings. Despite well-understood arguments about how McDonald's benefits from consumer thrift and lower commodity costs, cautious analysts are penciling in profit growth of just 5% in 2009 -- far more conservative than 2008's 27% growth. McDonald's shares, which are trading at about 15 times expected 2009 earnings are merely in line with the dud-laden restaurant sector, and at the low end of their historical range between 10 and 32 times forward earnings. Notwithstanding investors' current indifference to the shares, Cowen analyst Paul Westra expects them to outpace the market by 20% over the next year. Talk about super-sizing!

The fundamentals could brighten as the bankruptcy gains fade. Last year's operating results were severely hurt by rising commodity prices, which have since dropped sharply, and by problems in its Australian and South African markets. Recent results suggest things have improved Down Under and that South Africa could be over the hump, Fournier says. Meanwhile, Italy and Canada, which account for two-thirds of sales, grew Ebitda at 9% last year. This isn't a riskless trade, but the downside seems limited and upside significant. As a food producer, Parmalat's Ebitda is fairly predictable, but the biggest concern might be that the company does something unwise with the cash, like an unnecessary acquisition, instead of increasing the dividend or buying back stock. The stock is up a third from its low, hit Dec. 29, but that is an encouraging signal for momentum. Milk and yogurt are said to be good for you. So probably are Parmalat shares.

Yes, there were some outlier influences. TPG, the buyout firm, sold the last $40 million of its shares in J. Crew Group (JCG), which it took private in 1997 and later brought public again. It is hard to read much into this exit, aside from the obvious fact that TPG seems not to expect J. Crew shares (up from 9.22 to above 16 in six weeks) to shoot much higher immediately.

Another big retailer, Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) saw five insiders sell a big slug of stock. Most of this selling came from the trusts of company co-founders, yet neither had sold any shares since January 2007.