Date updated:03-29-2008
From Barron's 3-29-2008
Summary of the bullish and bearish positions mentioned in the March 29th, 2008 Barron's.

-
MO
Altria Group Inc - $17.12
- 0.00%
- $17.22
With strong brands, ample payouts and cost-cutting targets, Altria and Philip Morris International could wow investors.

-
GOOG
Google Inc. - $428.40
- +0.43%
- $426.74
Reality is pushing into the Google (GOOG) story, as well. Data from market-research firm ComScore show that for the second month in a row, the company had no growth in the number of people clicking on online ads. Google grew just 3% in February from the same month last year -- growth accounted for by the leap-year day in February. Paid clicks fell about 3% from January. To be sure, Google will show solid March-quarter growth and some bulls contend the data reflect Google's efforts to improve the quality of clicks. But over the past few weeks, analysts have been chopping both earnings estimates and target prices for Google -- for Google! The stock now stands about $300 a share below its 52-week high. That drop has wiped out some $95 billion in market value -- roughly the equivalent of vaporizing the entire market cap of Merck. The slide has certainly reduced the risk in the shares. The Street currently expects GOOG to earn about $20 a share this year. Let's give that a haircut to $18. That would put the stock at a little under 25 times 2008 estimates. The consensus puts top-line growth at about 28% in 2009. Let's say it grows only 25%. If you can stomach some more volatility, one times its growth rate might be a rational place to start building a long-term position.

-
JOSB
Jos. A. Bank Clot - $41.22
- +1.23%
- $41.34
JoS A. Bank shares have already dropped from 46 to 23 and still have downside -- possibly to 16 if previous industry lows in P/Es are an accurate guide.

-
FISV
Fiserv - $44.62
- +1.41%
- $44.07
Fiserv shares look cheap. Baring a long recession or major acquisition problems, they could rise by 30% or more in the next year.

-
FL
Foot Locker - $11.62
- 0.00%
- $11.43
But have shares priced in most of the bad news? At about 11.22, the stock has slipped to a five-year low, and is below levels where its CEO has recently bought shares. Today, Foot Locker is valued at just 0.8 times its book, or accounting, value, compared with four times for apparel retailers. The stock trades at 12.2 times 2009 earnings, compared with 15.2 times for smaller rival Finish Line (FINL) and 15.1 times for Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS). After a distracting and ultimately failed attempt to buy rival Genesco (GCO), "management is refocusing on running lean and mean, and sales may be at trough levels," says M. Kevin Flynn, president of Lexington, Mass.-based Avalon Asset Management. Pricier items are still moving well, sales at European and Asian stores are still chugging along, and the company has made more headway in clearing out its glut of mid-price inventory. "Although the current retail environment is difficult, this may prove an opportunistic time to build positions in retailers with good balance sheets and strong cash generation," Flynn says. He sees maximum stock downside at about 9 if the U.S. slips into a vicious and prolonged recession and if the Dow falls to 11,000. But Foot Locker has a cash stash of more than $3 a share, and an annual dividend yield of about 5.2%, all of which should provide a little cushioned support if the going gets tough.

-
LSTR
Landstar System - $39.03
- -0.59%
- $38.99
At about 53 recently, Landstar, for example, is approaching the consensus Street target of about 55. It is trading at 23.8 times 2008 earnings, versus 13.5 times for the sector. Landstar and J.B. Hunt are trading at 15 times and 11 times their respective book, or accounting, values. Valuations could come under threat if diesel prices continue to climb, and if the economic rebound takes longer than expected to arrive.

-
JBHT
J.b. Hunt Transpo - $31.37
- -1.88%
- $31.87
At about 53 recently, Landstar, for example, is approaching the consensus Street target of about 55. It is trading at 23.8 times 2008 earnings, versus 13.5 times for the sector. Landstar and J.B. Hunt are trading at 15 times and 11 times their respective book, or accounting, values. Valuations could come under threat if diesel prices continue to climb, and if the economic rebound takes longer than expected to arrive.
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