Date updated:03-22-2008
From Barron's 3-22-2008
Summary of the bullish and bearish positions mentioned in the March 22nd, 2008 Barron's.

-
RATE
Bankrate Inc - $32.73
- +3.61%
- $31.59
Barring a deep recession, Bankrate's outlook is surprisingly strong. Bulls see its stock up 25% in a year.

-
BBY
Best Buy Co Inc - $44.92
- -0.13%
- $44.40
At under $43, down some 20% from its 52-week high, Best Buy's stock reflects undue fear about how it would fare in a recession. Wall Street price targets average 52.

-
HANS
Hansen Natural Co - $25.58
- +2.12%
- $24.81
One worrisome data point is Los Angeles, which accounts for 5% of U.S. energy-drink sales and some 7% of Hansen's sales. Sales growth there for energy drinks has slowed to just 5%, and in February, Hansen sales fell 5.6% after growing 5.9% the previous month. Calls to random Costco stores, including Seattle and Waltham, Mass., also show that some no longer carry Monster Energy. Enter a slew of new rivals into an already-crowded market. January marked the rollout of Rockstar Roasted, a coffee-flavored offering from Rockstar, which also sells an herbal beverage. Beverage Digest sees Full Throttle Coffee, from Coca-Cola (KO), arriving this year. Starbucks (SBUX), too, is grasping for growth. Recently, industry leader Red Bull trademarked the name Black Bull, sparking rumors of a new coffee drink. Says Sicher: "Red Bull is very smart and [has] seen the success of Monster Java and Rockstar Roasted." Coke and Red Bull declined comment. Hansen has repeatedly defied the bears, and Rodney Sacks, its energetic chief, emphasizes that sales of other energy drinks in Los Angeles were off sharply, too. "The whole market is still up over 20%. If you take our brands in the four weeks, we're up 52% nationally." Los Angeles is "significant" but "mature," he says. Sales were up sharply in Dallas, on the other hand. Sacks had "no knowledge" of Costco stores not selling Monster, and maintained that lines like Lo-Carb, Khaos and Assault were growing swiftly, offsetting any slowdown in the flagship drink. And Rockstar and others "are simply followers. We have far greater selection, we have first-mover advantage, and our products taste better."

-
BGC
Gen Cable Cp - $44.84
- +1.91%
- $43.44
Another pick: General Cable (BGC), which makes cable and wire for industries ranging from utilities and mining to telecom; it also supplies wind farms. Foreign sales today are more than 65% of revenues. The addition of Phelps Dodge's old wire unit will be "nicely accretive," he says. General Cable trades at 10 time next year's consensus forecasts; Croft sees it growing earnings 15%.

-
ABB
Abb Ltd - $22.69
- -1.22%
- $23.00
Meanwhile, utility-rate caps that held back grid-spending in 23 states are now expiring. Almost no new electrical-generation capacity has been built since 2002, but that will change fast, Croft says. Thus, he is a fan of ABB (ABB), one of the world's biggest producers of electrical transformers (and the biggest seller of such equipment to China). ABB came under pressure this year amid worries about the economic slowdown (about 25% of sales are in industrial robots), and the board replaced the chief executive officer with somebody more eager to make acquisitions. It certainly makes sense to grab share while rivals like Siemens are in distress. ABB forecasts annual sales growth of 8% to 11%, and earnings-per-share growth of 15% to 20%. Meanwhile, it trades at just 13 times consensus forecasts for '09

-
NVDA
Nvidia Corp - $11.67
- +1.48%
- $11.40
Nvidia this year grew its top line 34%; in Q4, revenue was up 37%. Estimates for the January 2009 fiscal year call for Nvidia to report $4.8 billion in revenue and profits of $1.69 a share. For 2010, the consensus is $5.2 billion and $1.86. At last week's close, Nvidia had a market value of $10.5 billion. In other words, NVDA is trading at a modest 2.2 times current-year revenue, and just 11 times earnings. Barring a dramatic collapse in PC demand, it's hard to picture a cheaper play on the rise of visual computing.

-
V
Visa Inc. - $71.76
- 0.00%
- $N/A
The stock's valuation now presents an acutely negative risk-reward tradeoff -- the typical great-business/unattractive-stock syndrome. Visa earned around $1.50 a share while private in calendar 2007. Generously granting it strong growth out of the chute, let's assume it earns $2 in 2008. That places it above 32 times this year's earnings, one of the stoutest valuations of any large-cap.

-
BSC
Elements Bg Sm Cp - $9.81
- 0.00%
- $N/A
Ultimately, the Feds may determine whether Dimon & Co. will be allowed to sweeten the bid. Shareholder opposition could harden because Bear Stearns likely was profitable in its first quarter, ended Feb. 29. The firm was supposed to report earnings last Monday, and it's unclear when they now will be announced. At $6, Bear Stearns looks like a reasonable speculative bet on a higher bid. It's possible that shareholders could reject the deal and hope that Bear, helped by a new Fed lending facility, could survive on its own.
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