Date updated:03-08-2008
From Barron's 3-08-2008
Summary of the bullish and bearish positions mentioned in the March 8th, 2008 Barron's.

-
FNM
Fannie Mae - $6.84
- -13.96%
- $7.62
The stock down 65% since last fall, may well fall a lot farther. As capital declines, the company could issue more stock. But that, too, would hurt shareholders.

-
BKD
Brookdale Senior - $22.05
- +0.05%
- $21.76
Industry giant Brookdale Senior Living and small-caps Emeritus and FiveStar Quality Care all look cheap, with upside of 50% or more.

-
ESC
Emeritus Cp - $22.22
- -1.72%
- $22.54
Industry giant Brookdale Senior Living and small-caps Emeritus and FiveStar Quality Care all look cheap, with upside of 50% or more.

-
FVE
Five Star Qual Ca - $4.02
- +1.52%
- $3.96
Industry giant Brookdale Senior Living and small-caps Emeritus and FiveStar Quality Care all look cheap, with upside of 50% or more.

-
CX
Cemex Sab De Cv A - $20.05
- -0.40%
- $20.12
At an '09 P/E of 8, Cemex shares reflect prospects of a deep U.S. recession. At a more normal 12-14 multiple, the stock could trade as high as $44, a gain of up to 75%.

-
BRK.A
Brk.a - $0.00
- N/A
- $N/A
Berkshire's earnings could be down this year because of a tougher insurance market. But its investment portfolio is likely to grow as Buffet buys beaten-up junk bonds and stocks.

-
IBKR
Interactive Broke - $27.30
- -0.36%
- $27.16
Sandler O'Neill analyst Richard Repetto thinks the MF taint may be at work here, and hastens to point out how "Interactive Brokers is not MF Global." While the Greenwich, Conn., firm assumes principal risk, Repetto has faith in its rigorous risk management, especially its system for calibrating real-time margins. In fact, market turmoil generally is good news for Interactive Brokers. The firm makes markets electronically in 350,000 securities and products around the world, and also operates a low-cost electronic brokerage firm. Both benefit from the kind of volatility roiling the stock market this quarter, since it drives increased trading of options and futures. In fact, chatter abounds that rival market makers -- especially those affiliated with Wall Street banks or firms -- recently are taking a more conservative tack and aren't quoting prices as aggressively as before. This potentially reduces competition and allows Interactive Brokers "to generate wider spreads and capture more market share," Repetto says. And at about 30, shares trade at a reasonable 15.6 times projected 2008 profits.

-
NCR
Ncr Cp - $26.46
- -2.54%
- $26.96
Today, at about 23, NCR trades at just 15.4 times projected 2008 profits, compared to 19.3 times for Diebold. Long-term debt makes up just 15% of capital, compared to 33% for Diebold, and the cash in NCR's own bank vault gives it plenty of dry powder. The financial self-service or ATM unit also has the benefit of geographic diversity, says KeyBanc analyst Matt Summerville. Nearly three-quarters of its sales come from overseas, and its U.S. business is well-aligned with big, national banks for which ATM-spending remains robust. Its customer-service segment, which accounts for nearly 38% of sales, has a busy year with new-product launches. Retail-store automation drives just 19% of revenue today, but Summerville thinks "self service represents the largest growth opportunity." Growth could come from expanding self-checkout into general-merchandise and drug stores, automating the returning of merchandise, and increasing penetration of the travel and hospitality industries with self-service innovations at international airports, hotels, car-rental shops and restaurants. These should lead to another year of solid double-digit sales growth -- nothing to scoff at today.
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