Northern Trust's stock could rally 20% in the next year, to the mid-60s, as earnings -- and the bank's roster of clients -- grow. At 55, shares are off 38% from a September high.

Loews could rally to the high 20s from today's 21 if the discount to its asset value narrows to 20%. It could hit the 30s if assets like CNA and Diamond Offshore recover.

To compensate its private-banking customers for losses from Bernie Madoff, Banco Santander is offering them another terrible investment. In exchange for a release of legal claims and a commitment to leave their money with the bank, Santander is giving customers an illiquid preferred stock worth a small fraction of their original investment, with no compensation for money- management fees or the supposed investment gains that Santander had reported year after year.

But not everyone thinks that Cnooc's plan to spend big going into a recession is all that risky. Costs in the oil industry, such as steel, are coming down. Although rig rates have so far held up, industry analysts predict the highest day rates on new contracts will fall by about 15%. Moreover, spending heavily on new projects now could make Cnooc a winner when oil prices pick up, as many of its rivals have either chosen not to expand operations significantly or have been unable to do so because of the credit crunch.

The chance that one of those times is at hand for Time Warner Cable (TWC) means investors should be a bit leery of the stock in the near term, for mostly mechanical reasons. Parent Time Warner Inc. (TWX) last week confirmed broad expectations that it would distribute the 85% of TWC shares it still owns to existing Time Warner Inc. shareholders. The alternative would have been for the parent to offer to exchange TWC shares for its own shares. The announced plan means that about 900 million TWC shares will go to Time Warner Inc. holders by March 31. As Eric Savitz noted on his Barron's Online blog, analyst Thomas Eaton of Collins Stewart is warning that enough of these newly distributed TWC shares are likely to be rapidly sold, that TWC's stock price, now at 17.62, could be pressured. (TWC will also be paying a $10.27-per-share cash dividend, so the price will drop by that amount as a matter of routine once it is paid.)

But the investment thesis is still intact. Hurd's message, even back in December, was revenues be damned. He urged investors to focus on things he can control, such as grabbing market share and increasing profit margins through tighter cost controls of items including his own paycheck. The company plans to slash Hurd's base pay of $1.45 million by 20%, while reducing other executive-level salaries by as much as 15%. Paychecks for other employees could be cut by up to 5%. Hurd, in a conference call, pointed out that HP gained market share in many key businesses. Another bright spot was services, which now earns recurring profits of $1 billion a quarter. "In many ways, I will tell you [that the first quarter] from an execution perspective was among the strongest we have delivered," he said. Sacconaghi, for one, is advising his clients to buy HP on this dip. He argues convincingly that the shares are attractively valued, trading at nearly a 30% discount to the S&P 500, based on his firm's fiscal 2009 estimates. His target is 47.

Ford might emerge as a winner -- if the auto market recovers next year. But GM won't survive without help, and Chrysler seems a lost cause.

While there is no assurance that GM could recover under a bankruptcy plan -- its fate also depends on an upturn in the auto market no later than early 2010 -- a nonbankruptcy rescue effort appears likely to ultimately result in the company's liquidation. GM's turnaround plan sacrifices four brands: Pontiac, Saab, Saturn and Hummer. Asserts one auto analyst: "Just as GM found it easier over the past 30 years to avoid labor strife and give the union what it demanded, GM management has every reason to take the easy path, writing checks to pass on the government handouts and not demanding real change. These guys are egotistical, arrogant and in bed with the union. Only bankruptcy would change that."