Barron's Summary 12-20-2008
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Date updated:12-20-2008

Summary of the bullish and bearish positions mentioned in the December 20th, 2008 Barron's.

symbol name last price % change open
  • +
  • GPM
    Gpm
  • $0.00
  • N/A
  • $N/A

Barron's has been wrongly bullish on GM common and debt in the past. Still, the best GM bet probably is its unsecured debt, which rallied Friday on the bailout news but which still trades below 20 cents on the dollar. GM's 6¼% convertible bonds due 2033 (GPM), which trade on the Big Board, rose 30 cents, to $3.78 -- about 15% of their $25 face value. The bonds yield 39%, but that's probably illusory, given the prospect that the convertible investors will have to participate in an unfavorable debt exchange or face the prospect of a GM bankruptcy. GM's 8 3/8% bonds due in 2033 were trading at 18 cents on the dollar. There could be value in GM bonds if the company restructures its debt and bondholders get 33 cents of real value (two-thirds of par). But if GM went into bankruptcy, the recovery value could be very low.

People owning GPM also tend to own: BAMKBRSHLDACADCHLCMGIF

TheStreet.com Rating: No Rating What is this?

  • +
  • NMR
    Nomura Holdings
  • $7.04
  • -0.98%
  • $6.78

Nomura shares have performed terribly this year and may fall a bit further. But with an improved return on equity, the stock could be worth as much 30% more than current levels.

People owning NMR also tend to own: AIGBRK-BCRJNJKFTMDTMO

TheStreet.com Rating: D What is this?

  • +
  • MSFT
    Microsoft Corpora
  • $28.52
  • +0.18%
  • $28.32

The market for personal computers in 2009 will be much worse than anyone would have expected just a short while back. But that shouldn't faze Microsoft (MSFT). Shares of the world's largest software company have fallen 46% this year, worse than the 40% drop in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, as investors worry about slipping PC sales. The result: Microsoft has become a substantial value investment. With a 2.7% dividend yield and a vast commitment to buying back shares, Microsoft stock is no longer a bet on the PC. More and more, it looks like the stable utility stock of the digital age. Indeed, the Redmond, Wash.-based giant's dividend has a better yield than the 10-year Treasury note's 2.1%. And the company is not likely to disappear from the planet anytime soon. As long as PCs are sold, in whatever volume, Microsoft continues to be a tax, so-to-speak, on those PCs purchases. While Microsoft's yield has never been higher (with the exception of a special cash dividend in 2004), the stock, at a recent $19.30, is trading at just 10 times estimated earnings for the next four quarters, its lowest multiple in 20 years.

People owning MSFT also tend to own: AAPLAMDCSCODELLGOOGIBMINTC

TheStreet.com Rating: B What is this?

  • +
  • NSRGY
    Nsrgy
  • $0.00
  • N/A
  • $N/A

The first half of 2009 will be "very volatile" with more bankruptcies, adds Virginie Maisonneuve, head of global and international equities at Schroder Investment Management. The market will test previous lows and "you'll want to retain quality growth defensive names, like Nestlé (ticker: NSRGY), Unilever (UN) and Danone Group (GDNNY)," she says.

People owning NSRGY also tend to own: AAADPAVPBACBRK-BBUDCSCO

TheStreet.com Rating: No Rating What is this?

  • +
  • UN
    Unilever N V N Y
  • $30.53
  • +0.20%
  • $30.23

The first half of 2009 will be "very volatile" with more bankruptcies, adds Virginie Maisonneuve, head of global and international equities at Schroder Investment Management. The market will test previous lows and "you'll want to retain quality growth defensive names, like Nestlé (NSRGY), Unilever (UN) and Danone Group (GDNNY)," she says.

People owning UN also tend to own: BMYBNSCLXCVXDDDEIBM

TheStreet.com Rating: No Rating What is this?

  • +
  • RTP
    Rio Tinto Plc Ads
  • $193.33
  • +1.45%
  • $189.18

But on a three-year view, she thinks cyclical stocks like mining and steel firms will offer good value between now and June. Firms like Rio Tinto (RTP) and steelmaker ArcelorMittal (MT) are good plays on long-term infrastructure spending around the world, Maisonneuve avers.

People owning RTP also tend to own: AXAFDXNOKNUESLBTMAAPL

TheStreet.com Rating: No Rating What is this?

  • +
  • MT
    Arcelor Mittal Ne
  • $35.09
  • -1.40%
  • $34.69

But on a three-year view, she thinks cyclical stocks like mining and steel firms will offer good value between now and June. Firms like Rio Tinto (RTP) and steelmaker ArcelorMittal (MT) are good plays on long-term infrastructure spending around the world, Maisonneuve avers.

People owning MT also tend to own: CXFCXFTEKNMXNYXRIOTM

TheStreet.com Rating: C What is this?

  • +
  • BP
    Bp Plc
  • $58.43
  • -0.17%
  • $57.53

"I'm warming up to metals and mining," seconds Daniel Kerbach, head of European equities at LGT Capital Management. But he currently favors telecom and energy stocks, like BP (BP) and Telefonica (TEF).

People owning BP also tend to own: BACCBSHCLEDFITBFREGE

TheStreet.com Rating: C+ What is this?

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