Good business prospects, a solid balance sheet and a decent dividend make some bulls see Telstra shares advancing by a third or more over the next 12 months.

Consumer staples is the bomb shelter of this bear market, but not all stocks provide good cover. It's easy to see why Sysco (SYY) is off just 29% this year, compared to the market's 42% slide: North America's biggest food-service company, which supplies more than 400,000 restaurants, hotels, schools and hospitals, is projected to grow profits and will benefit from weakened competitors and industry consolidation. But some under-appreciated details could hold back shares. Sysco's cash flow has been boosted by an internal re-organization that puts its supply chain in a co-operative structure, one with a different fiscal year from the company. This lets Sysco defer certain tax payments, and its liabilities list about $1 billion under "deferred tax liability." This structure has since caught the eye of the IRS, and losing the tax advantage -- an answer is expected early 2009 -- could add $1 billion in debt. Bears also question the way Sysco has been increasing, since fiscal 2002, the number of years over which it depreciates certain assets, which lowers depreciation expenses and pads margins. True, even critics say Sysco might be worth, say, 18, which isn't far below its level today near 22.31. But Sysco could find it harder to grow profits amid food-cost inflation. It also isn't clear if Sysco will reap big benefits from tumbling energy prices, having hedged its 2009 fuel costs this summer when oil was near its peak. Finally, as Americans try to save a buck by eating at home and brown-bagging at work, restaurants, and even cafeterias, will feel the pinch. And so will their suppliers.

Once pricey shares of NYSE Euronext (NYX), Nasdaq OMX Group (NDAQ), CME Group (CME) and IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) have been decimated. Three of the four now fetch a mere fraction of their book, or accounting, value -- an unprecedented occurrence. All four trade at the lowest-ever multiple of what each is projected to earn next year. For example, NYSE Euronext -- which operates the New York Stock Exchange, Belgian, French, Dutch and Portuguese markets, as well as a pan-European derivatives market -- fetches just 6.4 times forward earnings, well off the 59 times it commanded in 2006. CME Group, the parent of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the world's largest futures market, is valued at 10 times forward earnings, down from nearly 40 times last year.

Exchanges look cheap by other measures. The NYSE and Nasdaq, respectively, trade for just 6.6 and 10.9 times what they will earn this year -- well shy of 28 times for the Financial Select SPDR (XLF). Even Visa (V), with steady cash revenues, commands a 22.6 times multiple despite shrinking credit and shriveled consumer spending. The trading houses are also better equipped to survive recession. Each wisely used ample cash and high-priced stock to make big purchases during the boom. Today, they are global brands that transcend borders and asset classes. This year, Nasdaq bought Nordic exchange operator OMX, the Philadelphia Stock Exchange (with its options platform), and the European electricity market NordPool. Such diversity in geography and assets helps mitigate the risk of deterioration in any one part of the globe.

"The market has priced in a far more pessimistic outlook than I think is realistic," says Benn Steil, director of international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations. Sure, trading growth will slow the longer the financial system stays under duress. But exchange stocks' staggering discounts suggest investors may have factored in too much of the worst-case scenarios. Even if we slash another 20% off the NYSE's 2009 profits, bringing it back to a modest low-teens multiple would leave the shares roughly 60% higher.

Investors may be valuing ICE on its old commodities footprint, while overlooking its push into broader asset classes and to self-clearing, notes Morgan Stanley analyst Patrick Pinschmidt. He described ICE as "a growth exchange without the multiple."

Leucadia is trading near 17, versus a book value now estimated at 20. If Leucadia's two top managers haven't lost their investment touch, the stock could hit 30 in a year.

Timothy Arcuri, Citigroup's semiconductor-equipment analyst, last week raised his rating on Applied Materials (AMAT), the sector's leading player, to Buy from Hold, asserting that the chip makers had cut spending to the level required simply to maintain their current production. Arcuri contends that "there will be more than 50% upside from what's been budgeted for 2009" just to get back to "normalized" levels. His view is that capital spending has bottomed and that this "warrants a more offensive portfolio" in equipment stocks heading into 2009. Arcuri also asserts that tech could lead the market when things eventually turn around-and that within tech "the bar is set lowest, by far, in semi equipment." Oh, I hope he's right. But others argue that this is no normal downtrend -- it's something new and different and nastier. I read Arcuri's report, and I felt better -- until I read a note from Friedman Billings Ramsey analyst Mehdi Hosseini. He contends that Applied's January-quarter bookings could be down 40% -- even worse than the 30% the company is forecasting -- and that April-quarter orders could slide another 15%-20%. He thinks that Applied may have to cut more heads.