If the stock market rallies through 2009. Berkshire stock could rise by more than 20%. If the slump rolls on, Berkshire's solid balance sheet offers downside protection for its shares.

NFP shares are down about 95%, to just $1.21, since Barron's wrote skeptically about them this past March. Don't count on a quick rebound, or on the emergence of an acquirer.

A person close to the company insists that Citi remains "well capitalized and in a position of strong liquidity," with a 10.4% Tier One ratio. The government doesn't have to change TARP or inject money into Citi, the person said. All the rumors would be "vaporized," the source said, if the government would make clear it wouldn't push financial institutions with strong Tier One ratios to raise capital by selling common equity, as happened to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Citi declined comment on rumors the board would take action over the weekend, and on talk Citi might exist in a new form Monday. CreditSights, an independent research firm, estimates that Citi will need to take about $29 billion in after-tax losses over the next two years to cover its troubled assets. Those losses are covered by TARP and Citi's current capital, CreditSights reckons. What are Citi's options? Rumors of a merger with another bank or a sale abound, but with some $2 trillion in assets, who can buy it? What merger partner would be big enough to offset Citi's troubled assets yet not so big as to create a huge, risky bank concentration? Citi could sell pieces of itself. But there are few in a position to buy. Under the Bush administration, full or partial nationalization seems unlikely. Citi's only option seems to be to go it alone, with or without more government help, selling what it can to shore up its capital. While there appears to be nothing that could make Citi close its doors tomorrow, a continuing drop in the stock price could force the issue. Similar rumors have taken down Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns. Citi looks like a binary bet. If confidence about its assets returns, the stock could soar. But near 4 -- down from 55 -- the stock can't take much more pressure.

One that Douglas Cliggott's been adding in the downdraft is the country's biggest pharmacy benefits manager, Medco Health Solutions (MHS), down a third from its highs to 37.32. Medco stock dropped roughly as much as the broad market did from mid-September to the end of October. That suggests indiscriminate selling of Medco, which has been beaten down to a relatively low P/E, almost 14 times forward earnings, lower than its growth rate. It's rare to get Medco at a discount to its growth, says Cliggott. For the first nine months, Medco sales rose 17% to $38.3 billion and profits 25% to $829 million, or $1.74 a share. Medco expects 2008 earnings of $2.30-$2.33 a share, up 20% from 2007, and $2.67-$2.77 next year, up 15%. And it plans to buy back some $3 billion of shares. Tough economic times could play to Medco's strength. Fast-rising heath-care costs are one of Corporate America's biggest problems, so the cost benefits of mail-order drug fulfillment and generics, for example, have wide appeal to companies and consumers. Medco attributed part of its 38% third-quarter profit jump to a rise in clients and their desire to cut drug-benefit costs.

Toyota is also the leader in high-margin hybrid-technology cars with its iconic Prius -- and has other models in the pipeline. Oil prices have dropped sharply, but the memory of $4 a gallon gas is unlikely to recede from drivers' consciousness when they return to car showrooms. A consumer shift in developed markets toward hybrids may help counter some of the margin erosion the companies will suffer as drivers give up high-profit, gas-guzzling small trucks and luxury cars. And while forecasting future cashflows and revenue is no easy business today, valuations for the company are also as cheap as they ever have been. Toyota stock trades at around 0.8 of book value, and company management has indicated that it is reluctant to start cutting dividends. The yield is 4.55%. Toyota is a good long-term bet. But you might wait till America decides how to try to cure its sickly Big Three before putting big money down. Detroit's problems already have rippled to Tokyo, and their solution will, too.

For those looking for a reasonably sober way to bet on a less calamitous outcome and a return of some normalcy in capital markets, the iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond iShares (LQD) is worth considering. The exchange-traded fund was steady all year until mid-September, when all credit instruments were deemed guilty until proven innocent, and after a recent bounce remains 10% off its high. Its 6% yield appears solid, given the high-grade holdings and diversification -- and that's real money in a world of 3.2% Treasuries. It's a good play on crushed corporates.

Last week, Ballmer said "no" again after Jerry Yang stepped down as Yahoo!'s CEO; that time he sounded convincing, driving Yahoo! shares (YHOO) below $9 for the first time since 2002. Of course, Steve could still change his mind. But he holds all the cards: With the ad market sliding, it's hard to see Yahoo! putting up good numbers. On the other hand, when you back out Yahoo!'s cash and its investments in Asian Internet companies, at a single-digit price you aren't paying very much for the business. Needham analyst Mark May last week raised his rating on the stock to a Buy, asserting that the selling spree was overdone. His target: $12. That would be nice for those who bought at $9, but it wouldn't do much for anyone who believed Microsoft was going to buy Yahoo! at $31 or higher.

Wisconsin-based Schwinn stands to benefit from booming electric bike sales, which are up threefold in Europe and 80% in the U.S. in the past two years. Schwinn, after lurching in and out of bankruptcy in the 1990s, originally because it failed to foresee the mountain-bike boom, is now a small part of Dorel Industries (DIIB), a Canadian company with interests in home furnishings and recreational products.