Date updated:10-04-2008
Summary of the bullish and bearish positions mentioned in the October 4th, 2008 Barron's.

-
MET
Metlife Inc - $34.22
- -0.38%
- $34.42
MetLife is expanding wisely, including possible asset purchases from AIG, and has kept its investment portfolio relatively free of danger. The stock could climb more than 50%.

-
WFC
Wells Fargo & Co - $27.68
- -1.91%
- $28.07
Wells Fargo's move was seen as a sign of optimism, given it would need no federal support. Wells Fargo is saying that in view of the depressed prices of mortgage assets, the potential rewards of doing this deal are now worth putting its franchise at risk, says Charles Peabody, an analyst at Portales Partners. And that might engender confidence in other investors looking to bargain-hunt.

-
MVL
Marvel Entertainm - $52.15
- +2.01%
- $51.50
That blockbuster means Marvel is no longer undiscovered, and shares fetching 15 times 2009 earnings aren't cheap, compared with 11 times for other entertainment stocks. But a 31% net profit margin dwarfs the 9.4% average for its peers, and the stock, at 30.72, doesn't fully reflect the New York company's earning power. Marvel last week inked a distribution deal with Viacom 's (VIAB) Paramount unit that will help limit the fiscal risk of production while boosting potential gains from international hits. Marvel will pay Paramount an 8% fee -- instead of the expected 10% -- to distribute its next five films in key foreign markets. Cowen analyst Doug Creutz calls it a "new deal with better economics" that can help Marvel outgun the market by 15% over the next year. Movies are a famously erratic business to handicap, and Marvel must guard against lazy sequels and superhero saturation (an Ant-Man movie, anyone?). But owning the merchandising rights can help Marvel break even from a modest box-office haul, while blockbusters will pad the upside. In fact, bulls believe that a controlled output of two films a year could add $2 billion to $4 billion to its market value within five years. A good superhero also has staying power, and more licensing loot, for instance, could swing Marvel's way when the Spider-Man musical -- with music by Bono, no less -- lands next year on Broadway. Unlike other media companies that rely on waning advertising dollars, a movie and licensing pure play like Marvel depends largely on the public's willingness to buy a movie ticket (followed preferably by a DVD, and videogame, and action figure, and lunch-bag). And companies selling escapism do best when the economic reality turns grim.

-
AIG
Amer Intl Group N - $36.39
- +0.36%
- $36.26
The units AIG aims to keep are its historical core: commercial property and casualty insurance in the U.S. and general insurance abroad. These operations earned better than $16 billion pretax last year, and could again, if AIG doesn't lose too many customers as it recovers. "We'll emerge as a smaller more nimble company that is solidly profitable," said Edward M. Liddy, AIG's new CEO, in his first investor conference call Friday morning. If he's right, Friday's share price of 3.86 (AIG) represents just a five times multiple on AIG's fully-taxed core earnings -- a 20% discount to its peers. Liddy held out hope that the feds might not exercise all of their highly dilutive conversion rights to AIG common, which could boost the share count to a staggering 13.4 billion. If they do show restraint, that would boost AIG's book value, now about five bucks a share.

-
STD
Banco Santander A - $17.35
- +1.34%
- $17.17
Still, the uncertain bet on Sovereign (ticker: SOV) has done little to dent Santander's (STD) reputation as a smart acquirer. In fact, Santander is poised to take market share in the current credit crisis as it bulks up on distressed assets. One recent smart move: Santander agreed to buy the retail branches of Bradford & Bingley after the British government nationalized the mortgage lender. Furthermore, some market analysts peg Santander as one of the compelling bargains among beaten-down European banks; its shares are trading for 6.5 times the $2.40 a share some analysts expect the bank to earn next year.

-
RBS
Royal Bank Ads Ne - $12.56
- +1.78%
- $12.32
Chad Deakins, manager of the Ridgeworth International Equity Fund, plays the euro bank market by buying stronger names such as HSBC and more levered players such as Barclays, which sells for six times forward earnings and Royal Bank of Scotland, at five times. Royal, especially, is indeed a risky bet, facing especially stiff refinancing challenges.

-
BCS
Barclays Plc Adr - $21.48
- +0.09%
- $21.42
Chad Deakins, manager of the Ridgeworth International Equity Fund, plays the euro bank market by buying stronger names such as HSBC and more levered players such as Barclays, which sells for six times forward earnings and Royal Bank of Scotland, at five times. Royal, especially, is indeed a risky bet, facing especially stiff refinancing challenges.

-
UBS
Ubs Ag (new) - $16.97
- +1.13%
- $16.72
Others that might fall into the bargain basket include Royal Bank of Royal Bank of (RBS) and Barclays (BCS), which both sell below the valuation of average European banks of around nine. Switzerland's UBS (UBS) is viewed as an intriguing corporate-restructuring play. Are these truly "bargains" or financial basket cases? That's the $64,000, er, $700 billion question. It's wise to be wary of anything financial, here or across the pond. European banks have already taken billions of dollars in writedowns, yet there are more to come, and with lower capital levels than their U.S. counterparts, many are ill-equipped to take further hits to their balance sheets.
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