Date updated:10-25-2008
Summary of the bullish and bearish positions mentioned in the October 25th, 2008 Barron's.

-
FGL.AX
Fosters Fpo - $5.280
- -0.19%
- $5.320
Foster's shares could jump 20% if an acquirer or reorganization materializes. The brewer's market value now about equals that of its beer unit. You get the wine portfolio for free.

-
HPQ
Hewlett Packard C - $39.31
- +8.20%
- $37.08
Although some big-cap hardware is likely to get hit, Allianz's Price sees at least one exception: Hewlett-Packard. Price thinks that HP's printer-ink business provides recurring revenue flows at a time when overall spending is dwindling. Plus, the money manager likes its purchase of EDS, a consultant for businesses and governments on outsourcing. "I think it was a brilliant move," Price says, because services are more stable. Price sees HP selling 10% more personal computers next year, thanks to EDS customers switching over from Dell and others. Short-term, these hardware sales could "provide some incremental growth when others aren't buying servers and storage." HP trades at eight times projected 2009 earnings. Price expects it to trade at 15 times, and thinks the stock can go as high as 60 from about 32 recently.

-
CTSH
Cognizant Technol - $19.44
- +2.15%
- $19.09
Dan Chung, chief executive of Fred Alger Management, contends that Cognizant (CTSH), a technology outsourcing outfit, is the best in its class, with the biggest growth opportunity. Software-application development, integration and maintenance are its primary services to corporate clients, while it pushes into the outsourcing of business processes, such as claims and payroll; the New Jersey-based offshorer also has offices in Europe and Asia, including India. Chung says American employee costs are two-thirds higher than the cost-per-employee in India. While politically unpopular as U.S. unemployment rises, outsourcing certain jobs overseas reduces overhead and saves money: major corporate priorities right now. The stock has been halved since late last year, trading last week near 17. Cognizant's exposure to financial companies is the main worry. But solid financial concerns, such as Met Life and Credit Suisse, remain clients. Chung thinks revenues and profits can grow 20% in 2009, pushing the shares back to the 27 to 35 range. Price also owns Cognizant because he likes anything that "saves people money."

-
AAPL
Apple Inc. - $93.02
- -1.65%
- $95.96
Slow consumer spending won't prevent Chung from snapping up a potential bargain -- Apple below 100. (It was at 96.38 at Friday's close.) "We've seen all of the [negative] consumer data, but you don't get many [affordable] opportunities to buy a large-cap, highly liquid leader in its field with such a pristine balance sheet," he says. Apple's cash balance of $25 billion, which is about 30% of the company's market cap. Chung predicts that calendar-year 2009 earnings will rise by 22% to about $6.25 a share. The shares should trade in the 150 to 180 range due to strong cashflow from the iPhone.

-
AMZN
Amazon.com - $57.36
- +6.10%
- $54.55
Price suggests that Amazon.com's efficient-retailing model becomes more valuable when consumers are scrimping and gas prices are high. "I think people under-appreciate the advantages it has in its logistics," he says. Amazon doesn't have stores, has easy-to-use software, owns technologically advanced warehouses and has developed sophisticated picking, packing and shipping methods, which benefit both it and the cash-strapped customer. Revenue growth will certainly slow from its recent 30% rate, he says. But at least the Seattle e-tailer will emerge stronger when good times return. He sees Amazon's market value, now $20.8 billion, hitting $30 billion within five years

-
GOOG
Google Inc. - $334.06
- +1.83%
- $332.50
Google is another favorite of Price's. He believes it can grow 20% annually for years to come. E-commerce, he notes, "is just getting started" in a lot of countries, and Google will grow faster than the average of those e-commerce markets, says Price. "People do a lot of research on the Internet before they buy things" which allows for more brand advertising. Plus, "the best way to monetize the mobile Internet is search," which is Google's strength. "I think that the stock could go back up to 600," from its recent 339, Price says. The shares right now carry an earnings multiple of 15 times 2009 estimates of $22.62

-
NTDOY
Ntdoy - $0.00
- N/A
- $N/A
Nintendo's refreshed product line-up and demand for its popular, interactive Wii consoles give the computer-game maker a leg up on the competition, Alger's Chung says. A new DS (dual-screen) handheld-computer game with increased wireless capability and steady demand for the Wii version of the extremely popular Guitar Hero game also bode well. While demand for computer consoles and game software will fall, Nintendo has an advantage: Its products cost less to make than Sony's Playstation or Microsoft's Xbox. And high license fees charged to third-party game developers provide an added revenue cushion. "Nintendo fundamentally is a striking opportunity," Chung says. The shares trade at around 14 times fiscal year 2008 earnings, and Chung predicts that the company will double FY 2009 earnings to $4.27. Plus, the company has roughly $11 billion in net cash, about a quarter of its market cap. Chung sees the shares hitting the 55 to 65 range within a year, up from near 39.

-
SNPS
Synopsys - $19.18
- +1.80%
- $18.90
Synopsys (SNPS) has won over Paul Wick, managing partner of J&W Seligman and head of Seligman Technology Group. "This is one of the most disruptive tech markets I've ever seen," says Wick, who pioneered tech mutual funds. But the disruption can produce opportunities like Synopsys, whose share price has fallen from 28 to 16. It makes software used to design electronic items like semiconductors. For all the fear about consumers, Wick doesn't believe the end buyer of Synopsys' clients' goods is in too bad shape. Adds Wick, "This is the ultimate defensive stock to the consumer electronics and computer industry." About 90% of Synopsys' revenue comes from a "visible" backlog of orders, which alleviates some pressure on 2008 sales. He believes Synopsys' earnings will grow 10% to 20% a year over the next three to five years as profit margins swell to 25% in 2009 from 23.5% this year. He thinks the Street's consensus earnings-per-share estimate of $1.67 is too low; he looks for $1.90 a share. The stock, says Wick, has the potential to hit 21. And with $6 a share in cash, he doesn't understand why more value investors haven't hopped on board yet.
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