Date updated:01-31-2009
Summary of the bullish and bearish positions mentioned in the January 31st, 2009 Barron's.

-
HIG
Hartford Fin Svc - $25.00
- -1.26%
- $25.14
Hartford Financial is on firmer footing than investors might think, making the insurer's stock look like an ultracheap bet on recovery in the bond market. A chance to double your money in the next few years.

-
VZ
Verizon Commun - $30.43
- -0.29%
- $30.38
As it continues to expand wireless, data, and video offerings via purchases and capital expenditures, Verizon could see its shares price increase by 30% over the next two years.

-
BCO
Brinks Company - $23.43
- -0.34%
- $23.38
Brink's (BCO) armored trucks guard and transport everything from museum treasures to ATM cash. For a company so closely hitched to the financial industry, Brink's is somewhat countercyclical: Demand for currencies increases as economies weaken, and increased crime during desperate times call for beefed-up security. After spinning off a home-security and monitoring unit late last year, the more focused Brink's is leaner and meaner. It has little debt and more than $5 a share in cash. It's surpassed Street estimates each of the past eight quarters. Will that streak continue when it reports on Wednesday? Shares trading below 27 are a third off their 2008 peak, and Susquehanna analyst Stephen Velgot expects management to buy back shares, while expansion in Asia could provide a longer-term boost. Yet Brink's enterprise value is just four times its projected 2009 Ebitda (or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) of $335 million, a discount to its peers. Velgot pegs the stock's value at 38.

-
SMG
Scotts Miracle-gr - $40.87
- 0.00%
- $N/A
When Scotts reports earnings Tuesday, investors expect the Ohio company to add market share and snag private-label deals. But how much good news is already priced into shares, compared with the less heeded risks? For a start, Scotts had loaded up on debt during the giddy heyday of cheap credit to pay a crowd-pleasing special dividend. That left its long-term debt to capital at a hefty 66%, well above the 15% average for agricultural fertilizer stocks. Roughly half its debt is floating and tied to market rates, so its interest expense bears watching, especially with Scotts' profit margin already at a taut 4.5%. The benefit from lower urea costs also may prove smaller than bulls hope, since the company had hedged part of its 2009 needs near peak prices. The biggest threat, however, comes from tighter consumer spending. Contrary to what some analysts claim, plant food isn't an essential staple and horticulture isn't recession-proof. As the economy wilts, cost-conscious Americans will defect to cheaper brands, go longer between purchases of fertilizers and weed-killers, and ponder lower-maintenance alternatives. (A corner rock garden, anyone?). Scotts has struggled to grow earnings even before this downturn, and raising prices to offset weaker volume will only exacerbate these risks. And insiders have been selling shares. Sure, Scotts has familiar brands, a flexible sales force, and incentive compensation that requires earnings to stay above a certain threshold. But at about 33, shares fetch 16 times projected 2009 profits -- a premium to the broad market and the company's own median multiple over the past five years. At these prices, stock buyers will need Scotts Miracle-Gro to live up to its name.

-
XLF
Financial Sel Spd - $14.60
- -0.61%
- $14.57
Biderman's primary recommendations when asked about investment ideas for Barron's readers: Short the exchange-traded Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) and Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY), as he still sees downside. If you go long, stick to companies with strong cash flow and balance sheets, or respected bond funds invested in highly-rated corporates. Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) may also be a play, since "of all industry groups, energy is the one with the most current insider buying," he says.

-
XLY
Consumer Dis Ss S - $28.69
- 0.00%
- $N/A
Biderman's primary recommendations when asked about investment ideas for Barron's readers: Short the exchange-traded Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) and Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY), as he still sees downside. If you go long, stick to companies with strong cash flow and balance sheets, or respected bond funds invested in highly-rated corporates. Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) may also be a play, since "of all industry groups, energy is the one with the most current insider buying," he says.

-
XLE
Energy Select Spd - $56.60
- -0.93%
- $56.81
Biderman's primary recommendations when asked about investment ideas for Barron's readers: Short the exchange-traded Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) and Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY), as he still sees downside. If you go long, stick to companies with strong cash flow and balance sheets, or respected bond funds invested in highly-rated corporates. Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) may also be a play, since "of all industry groups, energy is the one with the most current insider buying," he says.

-
BBY
Best Buy Co Inc - $43.30
- +0.81%
- $42.82
It feels vaguely unpatriotic to comment cautiously on TV vendor Best Buy (BBY) as the Super Bowl approaches. All the same, the stock has outpaced its sector since the November lows, and the company is about to lose some perceived business tailwinds. Circuit City is liquidating, a short-term drag on product pricing but of course proof of Best Buy's long-evident management superiority. The upgrade cycle phase-out of analog TV has come and gone. And DVD shipments fell 32% in December from the level a year earlier. While the Street has cooled somewhat on Best Buy, there's only one Sell rating, from Jaison Blair at Rochdale Research. He's focusing on discount retailers' determined attack on consumer-electronics pricing, which has pressured Best Buy's margins. (See Amazon.com's blowout numbers last week.) He also notes that a quarter of the company's revenue comes from outside the U.S., much of it via acquired businesses that have yet to prove lucrative. The stock's valuation isn't terribly challenging at 12 times forecast consensus earnings of $2.34 a share for the current fiscal year. Yet that forecast has hardly budged in two months, even as consumers' willingness to spend has been crunched. Blair thinks actual net will fall well short of $2. After a 60% run in Best Buy shares since late November, it appears the market is unprepared for such disappointment.
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