Date updated:01-19-2008
Summary of the bullish and bearish positions mentioned in the January 19th, 2007 Barron's.

-
MBI
M B I A Inc - $3.49
- -2.24%
- $3.50
MBIA's shares were savaged anew last week, and now its stock looks cheap. It trades for about 8, well below a conservative liquidation value above $30 a share.

-
ACOR
Acorda Therapeuti - $23.90
- +1.06%
- $23.60
Acorda, whose stock has been in the low 20s, could hit 28 in the next 12 months if clinical trials go well. And, ultimately, the company could be a takeover target.

-
URI
United Rentals In - $9.64
- +1.05%
- $9.43
In a recession, that guidance may prove optimistic, but UR has $2 a share in cash, a decent balance sheet, and trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of less than six times. If its earnings were to fall 50%, it would trade at a P/E around 12. Short of a nasty recession, UR's stock drop may present a long-term opportunity.

-
IHOP
Ihop - $0.00
- N/A
- $N/A
Some buy-side estimates peg free cash flow per share at more than $4 in 2009, up from something more than $2 this year, and then rising above $6 in 2010. This presumes no store expansion and nothing heroic on same-store sales results. Even a conservative multiple of 14 on next year's free cash flow could place the stock at $60. A 15 multiple on a projected $3.91 in '09 earnings gets you to about the same place.

-
INTC
Intel Corporation - $19.24
- -0.31%
- $19.15
One that I'd think about stashing away for the long term is Intel (INTC), which got smacked last week after providing modestly disappointing guidance for 2008. The company still has a commanding advantage over rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) in microprocessors, and the demand for PCs continues to rise impressively. Meanwhile, the stock trades for under 15 times 2008 earnings. Looks like a deal to me.

-
ESRX
Express Scripts - $85.09
- +1.25%
- $83.44
Express Scripts' valuation also is a deterrent. So is its hefty debt load. Long-term debt is about 76% of capital, well above the 18% average of its peers. Benefit-management profits should grow, but upside for Express Scripts may take longer to arrive.

-
NVS
Novartis Ag Ads - $53.13
- -0.30%
- $52.78
The higher dividend and share buybacks may well help support Novartis' stock price -- the shares were trading around 54 in New York early Friday, about 10% below their 52-week high -- but it will take more than that and the cost-saving program to sustain Novartis' premium rating to other drug makers if more concrete signs of earnings growth don't materialize.

-
SFLY
Shutterfly - $15.00
- -0.33%
- $15.07
Even at that level, the shares (SFLY), up 45%-plus in the past year, sell at 96 times trailing earnings and 35 times 2008 profit estimates of 57 cents a share. A snap of your son doing his Sinatra act might be worth a lot to you, but prudent investors should balk at paying up for this consumer play just as U.S. economic growth is dimming.
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A. The only one I own : SLX,
too hard pick a winner out all of them
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