Contrarians like KeyCorp for its 10.8% core capital ratio and big deposit base. If it can keep on working out problem loans, shares could double or triple when the economy revives.

Martin Marietta and Vulcan could drop by 20% or more if commercial building stays weak and federal spending disappoints.

Martin Marietta and Vulcan could drop by 20% or more if commercial building stays weak and federal spending disappoints.

A deep recession will hurt Nuance, but the bulk of its revenue comes from steadily recurring sources like long-term contracts, royalties and licenses, and maintenance and support services, including a big chunk from servicing more recession-resistant customers such as doctors. Critics fear that earnings growth will slow with the pace of acquisitions as credit constricts. As a result, Nuance's shares trade at just over 10 times '09 profits, compared with 12.8 times average for application-software companies.

Goldman's options strategists expect volatility drivers to shift from "macro" market issues to stock specifics during the year. Near term, John Marshall and Stuart Kaiser like buying puts on the Standard & Poor's 500 with one-to-three-month expirations as hedges against fluctuating stock prices. In the second half, should the economy recover, they like recovery plays in the home builder and high-quality retail sector and buying calls on high-beta oil stocks like Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Hess (HES) and National Oilwell Varco (NOV). They also like selling puts on the battered semiconductor stocks, particularly one-year puts on Lam Research (LRCX) and Applied Materials (AMAT).

Goldman's options strategists expect volatility drivers to shift from "macro" market issues to stock specifics during the year. Near term, John Marshall and Stuart Kaiser like buying puts on the Standard & Poor's 500 with one-to-three-month expirations as hedges against fluctuating stock prices. In the second half, should the economy recover, they like recovery plays in the home builder and high-quality retail sector and buying calls on high-beta oil stocks like Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Hess (HES) and National Oilwell Varco (NOV). They also like selling puts on the battered semiconductor stocks, particularly one-year puts on Lam Research (LRCX) and Applied Materials (AMAT).

Goldman's options strategists expect volatility drivers to shift from "macro" market issues to stock specifics during the year. Near term, John Marshall and Stuart Kaiser like buying puts on the Standard & Poor's 500 with one-to-three-month expirations as hedges against fluctuating stock prices. In the second half, should the economy recover, they like recovery plays in the home builder and high-quality retail sector and buying calls on high-beta oil stocks like Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Hess (HES) and National Oilwell Varco (NOV). They also like selling puts on the battered semiconductor stocks, particularly one-year puts on Lam Research (LRCX) and Applied Materials (AMAT).

Goldman's options strategists expect volatility drivers to shift from "macro" market issues to stock specifics during the year. Near term, John Marshall and Stuart Kaiser like buying puts on the Standard & Poor's 500 with one-to-three-month expirations as hedges against fluctuating stock prices. In the second half, should the economy recover, they like recovery plays in the home builder and high-quality retail sector and buying calls on high-beta oil stocks like Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Hess (HES) and National Oilwell Varco (NOV). They also like selling puts on the battered semiconductor stocks, particularly one-year puts on Lam Research (LRCX) and Applied Materials (AMAT).