Date updated:01-03-2009
Summary of the bullish and bearish positions mentioned in the January 3rd, 2009 Barron's.

-
STR
Questar Cp - $39.80
- -1.68%
- $40.48
Questar could rally into the 50s and beyond, from a current 32, if crude-oil and natural-gas prices rise and the company's latest drilling efforts yield the expected results.

-
INFY
Infosys Technolog - $51.12
- +0.37%
- $51.17
Infosys (INFY), which has a reputation for being one of India's best-managed and most transparent companies, has an undemanding P/E of 11 and a dividend yield of almost 2%. The infotech consulting and software services firm has a cash balance of $1.9 billion, zero debt and a return on equity of 36%. And its cash is held in bank deposits, with absolutely no exposure to mutual funds.

-
IBN
Icici Bk Ltd Ads - $33.59
- +0.15%
- $34.09
Another stock that appears to offer a decent risk-reward proposition is ICICI Bank (IBN). The stock, which traded around $75 at the height of the India bubble, is now around $18. That is basically where it was trading in 2004, before the India fever caught on. At its current price, the stock is trading at a modest trailing P/E of 14 and an attractive dividend yield of 2.8%. Shares of the country's largest private-sector bank have taken a beating because of concerns about its international business. With 26% of its loan book coming from overseas, investors are rightly worried about problems that might creep up amid the current credit crisis. The bank has slowed credit growth and is seeking to preserve capital, but worsening global credit-market sentiment might lead to larger-than-expected losses on its international investment book. If the bank can successfully cope with the crisis, its current share price should provide a good entry point for those with a long-term investment horizon, perhaps five years or longer. Right now, that's about the only way to look at any investment in India.

-
AAPL
Apple Inc. - $194.12
- -0.69%
- $195.68
Unlike Nicole Richie or Victoria Beckham, Steve Jobs' weight loss has a direct stock-market consequence: Each time the Apple CEO goes down a belt size, rumors surface about his health and millions are wiped off Apple's (AAPL) market value. So imagine the alarm when Apple announced that Jobs, for the first time since 1997, won't deliver the company's keynote address at this week's MacWorld conference. For years, the trade was to short Apple heading into this gadget-fest, since it marks a peak in the speculative hubbub over new toys and the high hopes about holiday sales. Things may be different this time: Anxiety about this dour Christmas is high, while expectations are modest. While devotees see a 2009 coming of a slimmer phone -- all hail the iPhone Nano -- analysts aren't anticipating anything beyond minor computer updates. Frugal companies may slash tech spending before they fire workers, but Apple increasingly is hitched to global consumer aspirations. Just as the iPhone matures, Apple shrewdly trades in the snob appeal for mass-market reach and will begin selling these at Wal-Mart (WMT). And the market for iPods and iBooks remain less penetrated outside the U.S. More than 30% of Apple's market value is cash, at nearly $25 billion. Yet Apple shares fell 57% last year, far harder than the 47% slide for computer-hardware stocks, despite its debt-free books, savvy product mix and twice-as-good profit margins. At 90.75, shares trade at 17.7 times 2009 earnings -- a fraction of the multiple it is used to commanding. It may now take less to feed investors' once-rabid appetite for growth.

-
HNP
Huaneng Power Int - $23.01
- 0.00%
- $23.17
Citigroup analyst Pierre Lau says that Huaneng is the most sensitive IPP to swings in coal prices. Using a base case of CNY2.1 billion net profit in 2009 and a 5% decline in unit fuel costs, Lau says every additional 1% reduction in the average coal price would boost Huaneng's 2009 earnings by CNY375 million, or 18%. In addition, as listed companies, the independents enjoy priority from the government in terms of being allowed to generate electricity. This means they are able to keep plants operating at a higher rate than their unlisted competitors. Also, the surge in coal costs in the first nine months of 2008 could turn out to be a blessing in disguise over the long term. As cash flow fell, electric utilities cut spending on new capacity -- laying the foundation for utilization rates to improve when consumption rebounds. GOLDMAN SACHS POWER ANALYST Franklin Chow predicts that 40 gigawatts of new capacity will come online in China in 2009, less than half the net addition of 90 GW in 2007. China's IPPs are highly leveraged, so Beijing's decision to cut interest rates by 108 basis points (1.08 percentage points) on Nov. 26 and the latest reduction of 27 basis points on Dec. 22 will help fund their working capital. Further support could come from China's CNY4 trillion ($584 billion) economic stimulus package, given that spending will be targeted at new infrastructure, which will require a lot of power in the construction phase. And power demand, while likely to be weak in the first half of 2009, should rebound in the year's last six months, on the back of the stimulus plan, UOB's Shi says.

-
BAESY.PK
Bae Systems Spons - $21.40
- 0.00%
- $N/A
Shares of BAE Systems, which closed at 376 pence Friday, slid 24% in 2008 The company has a trailing 12-month price/earnings multiple of 9.8, but still looks undervalued. Analysts, on average, expect it to report earnings of 38 pence a share in 2008 and 41 pence in 2009. Deutsche Bank has a 480 pence price target. BAE has become a major supplier to the Pentagon, providing advanced information technology and a range of military vehicles, and generates most of its revenue in the U.S. It appears certain to cash in on any supplemental defense spending.

-
CYH
Community Health - $31.68
- -0.35%
- $31.79
Another Towle favorite is health care, with companies yielding 12% to 15%. Examples include Hospital Corp. of America and Community Health Systems (CYH), both of which "are large and well run," he says.

-
CBB
Cincinnati Bell I - $2.73
- -0.73%
- $2.77
Select telecommunications bonds, once yielding 20%-plus but now in the teens, also look like an opportunity. He points to names like Cincinnati Bell (CBB) and Qwest Communications International (Q).
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A. One of the best of breed oil service
sector stocks would have been a better
bet during this most recent market
correction.
MMR does have strong strength in
ownership; however, the stock price run
up has already been 158% in the last 12
months yet has had a stock price
decrease of 24% in the past 3 months.
Serious consideration to buy MMR must
include being honest with a current PE
that is negative and more than one
analyst has significantly decreased
quarterly earnings estimates . . . which
leads to uncertainty, lack of
consistancy, predictability or stability
of what you are really buying.
The risk does outweigh the reward. . .
meaning it would be as you are phrasing
your question, a speculative play. . .
so how much are you willing to lose vs
how much are you hoping/anticipating to
gain?
Further, should you go with MMR, might
want to look at the charts for entry
point for partial position, followed by
adding partial position(s) with the
consideration of placing and using
mental stops to protect
investment entry points . . . Then
consider how much are you anticipating
to gain on the upside in anticipation to
taking a partial or total profit. . .
Thought being, keep a keen eye on MMR if
you put it into play and have your
finger on the trigger to sell in case
the price goes south (below support) or
hits the exit number (for profit).
In short, I have no personal position as
to why there would be any reason to dive
into MMR whole hog with the belief it
will be easy money. . . and that is
likely the real hard information or
supporting documentation you are hoping
to secure to feel confident in making a
more than certain profit with the
probability of low risk.
A. The only one I own : SLX,
too hard pick a winner out all of them
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