Credit Suisse analyst David Zion cautions that actual costs will differ in some cases from the firm's estimates, due to differing assumptions about amortization rates, interest rates, asset returns and other key factors. The biggest difference may be the presumed rate of return on assets, as the average pension portfolio was about 60% in stocks last year. FirstEnergy (FE), for instance, expects to take a 29-cent charge in 2009 related to pension costs, according to a spokeswoman for the Ohio utility, while Credit Suisse estimates the impact could be closer to 42 cents a share.

Among the companies on our list, General Dynamics (GD) says pension costs will have a minimal impact on earnings, since most of its profits come from government-related work and it can pass a majority of such costs on to the government. That isn't factored into Credit Suisse's 60-cent estimate of GD's '09 pension-related costs, Zion says.

Northrop Grumman (NOC), another defense contractor, could face a threefold increase in after-tax pension costs of $1.74 a share next year, Credit Suisse estimates. And that's despite having cut its equity exposure in half, to 25% by late September. Northrop executives have said they will consider using cash to pre-fund pension obligations, as well as acquisitions, dividend increases and stock buybacks.

Five industrial companies on Credit Suisse's short list -- Ryder System (R), Ashland (ASH), Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT), Eastman Chemical (EMN) and PPG Industries (PPG) -- could have pensions that are less than 80% funded for 2008, the firm says. Shortfalls of such magnitude could, in some cases, require additional contributions -- and entail costs.

Although Ashland's pension plans are underfunded, the chemicals company made higher-than-required contributions in years past, avoiding the need for cash funding now. Credit Suisse estimates the company will have pension-related costs of 79 cents a share next year, higher than Ashland's own guidance, stemming largely from the decline in its pension-plan assets. Ashland also told Barron's its plans are unlikely to be as underfunded as Credit Suisse estimates.

Chemical companies have been squeezed this year by dwindling end-market demand. Eastman Chemical recently said fourth-quarter earnings will be well below prior forecasts. Credit Suisse thinks Eastman's pension costs could triple in 2009 to 77 cents a share, though some of that risk might be reflected already in 2009 earnings estimates of $4.05 a share.

PPG Industries, which makes industrial coatings and chemicals, expects to make higher pension contributions and see higher costs in 2009, according to a recent SEC filing. But a spokesman for the Pittsburgh company emphasized it has plenty of cash on hand to fund the necessary amounts. Credit Suisse expects PPG's pension costs to more than double in 2009, to 83 cents per share.

Ryder CEO Greg Swienton told analysts in October that productivity and cost-cutting will offset some of the "significant increase" in pension expenses expected in 2009. According to a company spokesman, Ryder estimates 2008 pension liabilities will be $1.5 billion, slightly higher than Credit Suisse estimates. Credit Suisse expects Ryder to take an 83-cent hit to '09 earnings due to pension-related costs, six times higher than this year's likely penalty.