Market Outperform - Price 13.34 on Feb. 18 by Avondale Partners Target: 38. Baldor is a leading manufacturer of industrial electric motors, drives, generators, and other power-transmission products, with 9,500-plus customers. Its worldwide customer base consists of original-equipment manufacturers and distributors serving markets. Even with our lowered [fiscal-year] '09 earnings-per-share expectations, the shares of BEZ trade at a forward price/earnings ratio of 7.5, well below the historical 10.4 times to 41.3 times range. On a price to free cash flow basis, the company trades at seven times our FY09 estimate of $1.95 (ex-dividend), well below the average historical range of 25 times to 36 times. Market cap: $631 million.

Outperform - Price 4.90 on Feb. 18 by Fox-Pitt Kelton Cochran Caronia Weller Target: 17. We expect domestic-held card [net charge-offs] to grow to 8.5% in 1Q09, driven by higher unemployment, from 7.63% in 4Q08. We estimate that a 50 basis-point move in domestic-held credit-card NCOs in either direction would result in a one-cent (after-tax) impact to quarterly EPS. We believe the selloff is overdone; current valuation of 0.5 times [tangible book value] reflects worst-case scenario in terms of realizing expected loan-loss content and potential conversion of preferred stock to common. Market cap: $24.6 billion.

Hold - Price 9.12 on Feb. 17 by Collins Stewart Weak demand, share loss and mix-shift to low end should contribute to revenue and earnings shortfall. Our current estimates are [for revenue of] $14 billion and [earnings per share of] 28 cents, versus Street outlook of $14.7 billion and 30 cents. For the [January] quarter, we are modeling EPS estimates of 25 cents, or below Street estimates of 33 cents. While the stock may be in a bottoming process, lack of revenue growth and limited leverage makes the risk/reward unattractive. Market cap: $17.7 billion.

Buy - Price on Feb. 17 by Soleil Equity Research Holly reported 4Q08 operating earnings of $1.01 a share, ahead of our 70-cents-a-share forecast and consensus 59 cents, [thanks to] stronger-than-expected results from the company's New Mexico refinery. Holly remains our top refining-sector recommendation, and is the only refiner for which we forecast earnings to rise in 2010 from 2009, due to capital projects. However, we remain concerned about the near-term outlook for the sector, since we expect rising supply to place downward pressure on refining margins. Market cap: $1.17 billion.

Outperform - Price 161.8 on Feb. 17 by Cowen and Company We are upgrading MA from Underperform....The combination of positive [credit-card] revenue-growth rates with continued declines in discretionary advertising should continue to help MA expand Ebit [earnings before interest and taxes] margins and generate 20%-plus EPS growth rates this year, while sustaining sector-high, 30%-plus ROIC [return on invested capital] metrics. While in this upgrade, we aren't calling a bottom to the ongoing economic recession, we point to the resilience [of] MA's model....MA trades at 14 times projected [calendar] '09 EPS. Market cap: $21.1 billion.

Focus List - Price 34.30 on Feb. 18 by McAdams Wright Ragen Medtronic reported fiscal 3Q revenue of $3.5 billion and earnings of 71 cents a share, effectively in line with consensus and our outlook. MDT's cardiac-rhythm disease-management segment experienced a 4% decline in sales from a year ago, and likely lost some market share [to] competitive product launches. All other segments, minus physio-control, posted positive sales comparisons. Medtronic's balance sheet is sound, at 15% net debt to total capital; MDT generated more than $1 billion of free cash flow in 3Q. We are increasing our FY09 earnings estimate from $2.88 to $2.92 as a result of higher gross-margin assumptions. The 45 target is based on the shares trading at 14 times earnings. Market cap: $38.3 billion.

Outperform - Price 5.66 on Feb. 17 by Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Target: 7.50. Shares are trading below MFA's reported Jan. 31 book value, [which we think] is depressed due to negative marks on interest-rate swaps and non- agency [mortgage-backed securities]. The current indicated dividend yield is 14.6%; our 97-cent dividend for '09 equates to a dividend yield of 17.1%. Market cap: $1.2 billion.