Date updated:06-30-2007
From Barron's 7-02-07:
Barron's interviewed Peter Siris of the Guerilla Partners Fund in the July 2, 2007 issue.
"The outspoken Peter Siris brings a fresh approach to one of the hottest investment topics: China, which accounts for about 20% of the $45 million Guerrilla Partners fund. The Manhattan-based fund invests in China through a little-known group of Chinese companies that are listed in the U.S. and Canada. Shares of these fast-growing companies trade for about 10 times earnings, a fraction of the multiples in the Shanghai market. Siris, a former top-ranked retailing analyst, also brings his smarts to that sector. He likes a group of auto dealers, and is down on some high-flying restaurant chains. He is also is partial to a pair of strip-club operators. Since Guerrilla was founded in 2000, the fund has returned 15.6% annually. So far this year, it's up 15.9%. The 62-year-old Siris also runs a separate fund for Chinese investments."
Here are some of his top picks and top pans (see hate list).

-
BONT
Bon-ton Stores - $1.54
- +10.79%
- $1.34
From Barron's 7-2-07: "Another pick, Bon-Ton Stores, a department-store chain that he still favors, has nearly tripled. An orthodox stockpicker, Siris is not."

-
CHCG.OB
China 3c Group - $0.95
- +6.74%
- $0.89
From Barron's 7-2-07: "Yes, China 3C [ticker: CHCG] operates leased departments in places like Wal-Mart and Carrefour. It had 913 stores at the end of the first quarter. It turned its inventory 50 times 50 times in the first quarter. If a U.S. retailer turns its inventory five times, it's thrilled. The company should earn about 55 cents a share this year, probably 80 cents next year. The stock is at 6½. And it's the leading electronics retailer in China -- a market that is growing very fast. I don't know what you pay for that kind of growth, but it should be more than 11 times earnings. The market cap is around $300 million."

-
CSCT.OB
Csct.ob - $0.00
- N/A
- $N/A
From Barron's 7-2-07: "China Security & Surveillance Technology [CSCT]. This company is the leading player in the surveillance business in China. It's rolling up the surveillance market. All of a sudden the government wants more surveillance in the country. There's a law that mandates surveillance at every nightclub, every Internet cafe and every bar. More important, there is a new law requiring every reasonably sized city to install surveillance equipment on every street. Sales and earnings have been doubling every year. The company should make $1.05 a share this year and $1.50 in 2008. The stock is about 14. Citadel [the big hedge-fund operator] has invested $110 million in the company. It's got superb management."

-
GSHO.OB
Gsho.ob - $0.00
- N/A
- $N/A
From Barron's 7-2-07: "How about General Steel [GSHO]? It has a great story. The company was founded by some farmers as the first privately owned steel company in China. It scavenged equipment that was being thrown away by a local government steel mill. Deng Xiaoping came and blessed it. It recently announced joint ventures with two big Chinese steel companies. General Steel should make about 40 cents a share this year, and next year as these joint ventures start to hit, it should make $1.50, with over $2 the year after. The stock is at 3.75. Eventually mainline analysts are going to pick up coverage of these companies because they're real businesses with exciting growth stories."

-
SONC
Sonic Corp. - $11.96
- -1.32%
- $12.11
From Barron's 7-2-07: "Sonic is at 29 and should earn about $2.87 next year."

-
UAG
E-tracs Ubs Bloom - $20.05
- +3.67%
- $19.72
From Barron's 7-2-07: "United Auto Group is run by Roger Penske, who is a genius. It has invested a huge amount of money in the dealerships, which has hurt returns. The stock is at 21. It should make $1.50 this year, $1.75 next year. It has a lot of dealerships internationally and it will be selling the Smart car next year. [This week the company is changing its name to Penske Automotive Group (PAG).]"

-
M
Macy's Inc - $11.69
- +0.26%
- $11.69
From Barron's 7-2-07: "Another area where competition is going away, interestingly, is department stores. After Federated bought May, it has been Macyizing the company...A lot of the Federated stores have been turned into Macy's. From an operating standpoint, that's a smart decision. Everything is rebranded and everything is now homogenized. There are two problems with that. First, in Macyizing everything, management has left a significant vacuum at the high end. When you had the old Federated and May Co., there were always a few stores that had really upscale merchandise because they were in places like Beverly Hills. As Macy's has Macyized everything, it cut out that upscale business and Nordstrom [JWN] has picked it up. Macy's has left a void."

-
PTT
Ptt - $0.00
- N/A
- $N/A
From Barron's 7-2-07: Regarding the strip club business, "First, they have 90% gross margins. If you go into a gentlemen's club, they charge you a cover and a lot of money for drinks. Secondly, the girls who work there, the dancers, or what the industry calls the "talent," pay $150 to $200 a shift for the privilege of working. It's my kind of business where you charge both customers and employees to walk in the door...PTT should make 58 cents a share this year and 90 cents next year, and the stock is trading at about $8."
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A. do yourself a big favor and read cramers
books first. no one should be in the
market without some knowledge of how it
works. also, the market may well be over
valued. no one knows. finally, if you
just have to ignore this advice, stay
way away from 2x or 3x etf's. good luck,
mike
A. small trading before thrusday
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