Barron's Packaging Stock Picks
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Created by barrons3
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Date updated:12-06-2008

The group's attractions are many: The packaging and container industry boasts stable revenue growth and generates lots of cash. It has pricing power and is benefiting from the sharp drop in oil prices, which has lowered the cost of raw materials, such as plastic and resin. As a result, many packaging concerns reported solid third-quarter results, and the group on average could post double-digit earnings gains in 2009, barring a much deeper recession.

symbol name last price % change open
  • +
  • BLL
    Ball Cp
  • $50.39
  • -0.22%
  • $50.40

Broomfield, COLO-based Ball, the largest packaging company in terms of market capitalization, at $3.3 billion, posted a 67% increase in third-quarter profits, helped by strong overseas demand. Ball (BLL) says fourth-quarter results from continuing operations will track last year's 60 cents a share. Analysts see it earning $3.64 a share this year on almost $7.6 billion of sales and $4.01 next year, up from $3.50 a share in 2007. Ball's stock has fallen 25% in the past year, to a recent 34, but could trade closer to 50 in a year, if earnings increase as expected. Like other packaging concerns, Ball is cutting costs and closing plants. And it is renegotiating contracts with major customers that could yield higher prices. The leader in the $7.5 billion U.S. beverage-can market, with a 35% share, the company is leveraged to the beer and specialty-can markets, with products that include 12-ounce Coca-Cola and Pepsi soft-drink cans. "Today's environment plays into Ball's strengths," Chairman R. David Hoover told analysts on the company's third-quarter conference call. "I expect improved results in 2009."

People owning BLL also tend to own: CCKDENNDLMKONVLPIISDS

TheStreet.com Rating: B What is this?

  • +
  • CCK
    Crown Holdings In
  • $25.72
  • +0.16%
  • $25.50

Philadelphia-based Crown Holdings (CCK), with 20% of the U.S. beverage-can business, also had a banner third quarter, beating estimates. Like Ball, it operates globally. Crown generates 55% of its revenue in Europe, where it controls 46% of the food-can market. Crown, too, is sanguine about the near term; it expects to generate at least $800 million of operating profits this year, and close to $400 million of free cash flow. Alton Stump, an analyst at Longbow Research who calls Crown his top pick in the sector, thinks the company could earn $1.74 a share this year on revenue of $8.5 billion and $2.03 in 2009. Crown reported $1.31 last year, on $7.7 billion in sales. Stump sees the stock, which trades for 16, or nine times '08 estimates, reaching 38 in a year. To get there, Crown will have to overcome investors' concerns about its debt-heavy balance sheet -- debt accounts for more than 90% of total capital. Also, a stronger U.S. dollar lowers the value of the company's euro-based earnings. But such fears arguably are in the stock, which is down 38% in the past year. Stump notes that Crown is paying down debt; net debt totaled $3.2 billion as of Sept. 30.

People owning CCK also tend to own: BCOCARCHBCHKPCKRCOVCPRT

TheStreet.com Rating: B- What is this?

  • +
  • OI
    Owens Illinois
  • $32.31
  • +0.69%
  • $31.77

Valuations are attractive throughout the industry, which now sells for just 11 times the past 12 months' earnings, according to Wachovia. That's cheaper than consumer-staples stocks, which sport a trailing price/earnings multiple of 16.4, and the S&P 500, with a P/E of 15.9. One of the least expensive packaging stocks is glass-maker Owens-Illinois (OI), which, at around 18, fetches 5 times this year's expected earnings of $3.73 a share and 4.6 times next year's projected profits of $3.97.

People owning OI also tend to own: DUKTWMCWINAHRAINVBACCG

TheStreet.com Rating: C+ What is this?

  • +
  • SLGN
    Silgan Holdings
  • $55.09
  • -0.67%
  • $55.49

Stamford, Conn.-based Silgan (SLGN), No. 1 in the $3.5 billion North American metal-food-can market, recently lowered its profit guidance for the year, citing higher borrowing costs. Yet an 11% jump in quarterly profits prompted Deutsche Bank analyst Mark Wilde to upgrade the stock to Buy from Hold. He has a target of 50 on shares that recently traded for 43, or 12 times 2008 consensus estimates of $3.57 a share. Panjabi, the Wachovia analyst, values Silgan at 65 to 67 in view of the company's "good pricing power and knack for cost-cutting."

People owning SLGN also tend to own: IVACJOYGQIDTIEBLLCCKDENN

TheStreet.com Rating: A- What is this?

  • +
  • PTV
    Pactiv Corp
  • $23.50
  • +0.51%
  • $23.18

He also likes Lake Forest, Ill.-based Pactiv , the packaging leader in the U.S. foodservice industry. Pactiv (PTV) trades for 13 times earnings and has significant pension liabilities, but its earnings should be helped by a recent acquisition.

People owning PTV also tend to own: AAIAERCHPCOGDFREEFTGLS

TheStreet.com Rating: C+ What is this?

  • +
  • SEE
    Sealed Air Cp New
  • $22.15
  • +0.14%
  • $21.88

Industry analysts generally divide the industry into makers of rigid containers such as cans, jars and bottles, and flexible ones, such as Sealed Air 's (SEE) famous Bubble Wrap. The biggest player globally is Sweden's Tetra Pak, an aseptic food-containers specialist with annual revenue of more than $10 billion.

People owning SEE also tend to own: ASEICMCSKCOVDNAETPGLWINTC

TheStreet.com Rating: C+ What is this?

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