Date updated:04-05-2008
Wall Street was never too far away from Tony Yao's research lab at a Stanford University: One colleague started his own hedge fund and another went to work for fund manager Janus. While earning his M.D. and a Ph.D. in immunology, Yao tried to make ends meet as a research assistant. Then he discovered that evaluating disease therapies as a consultant for Silicon Valley's biotech firms paid much better. On graduation in 2002, Yao also joined Janus in Denver, where he covers emerging and mature biotech companies and specialty pharmaceuticals

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CELG
Celgene Corporati - $56.53
- -1.38%
- $57.35
Q: Let's talk about stocks. What should we be looking for? A: Celgene is in the early innings. It's probably one of the highest growers on both the top and bottom line of a company of its size in its category. I think it is worth between $80 and $85, and it's at $64 now.

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ACL
Alcon Inc - $157.72
- -0.24%
- $158.01
Q: You like Alcon. A: My Alcon price target will go to $176 with my 10% discount rate for 2009. So I get $160 to $165, and the stock is at $145.

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GILD
Gilead Sciences - $46.26
- -0.60%
- $46.46
Q: So what's the stock worth? A: My price target is 60, which you might consider fairly modest. For our firm, the ability to put large amounts of money in a good-visibility, market-leading stock with accelerating growth in these types of situations is a good deal.

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AGN
Allergan Inc - $58.75
- +0.22%
- $58.85
Q: What's your next pick? A: The last part is breast implants, 8% of sales, which is probably the most likely to be impacted by the economy. They have been growing market share against their single U.S. competitor, Mentor (MNT). The stock is at 58, but I think it's worth 75 on a discounted cash-flow basis. Like with Allergan, the economic impact is not nearly as significant as people think. Based on consensus numbers for '08, it's trading at 22.5 times, which isn't that expensive.

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KVA
K V Pharma Cl A - $3.46
- +2.67%
- $3.37
Q: What else? A: The company is small. They have a sensible brand business, too, which means they generate more sustainable earnings and revenues. They have actually built a very nice women's health business consisting of prenatal vitamins, iron supplements, anti-fungal/anti-bacterial treatments, and now hormone replacement. Evamist is their new spray estrogen. Their generic business runs gross margins of more than 55%, which is very high. The stock is now around $25 and I think it's worth $35.

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AMGN
Amgen Inc. - $56.55
- -1.65%
- $57.34
Q: So what do you think of Amgen, where people have waited for a turnaround for what seems like forever? A: Another analyst covers Amgen. The near-term prospects for the company are filled with uncertainty. Interestingly, Gilead is now bigger than Amgen. Amgen faces ongoing litigation with Roche (ROG.Switzerland), uncertainty regarding FDA changes to the ESA [erythropoiesis-stimulating agents] labels, and confusion regarding its safety profile. However, the Street may be pricing in a worst-case scenario, which might provide upside to long-term investors.
- Barron's Interview With Biotech Analyst Tony Yao's Blog
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