Barron's Interview Laszlo Birinyi
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Date updated:01-03-2009

Laszlo Birinyi, 65, has spent more than 30 years studying the stock market, analyzing everything from daily closing prices to advance-decline lines. He and his colleagues at Birinyi Associates, which he founded in 1989, try to get an edge by turning the data into investment ideas. For Birinyi, whose Westport, Conn., firm also manages about $250 million in assets, 2008 was a tough year in terms of performance, as it was for most money managers. The firm's managed accounts were down last year, though typically ahead of the S&P 500's 40% loss by five to eight percentage points, he says. However, Birinyi is approaching the new year with cautious optimism, having published a note last month titled "S&P 750: The Bottom."

symbol name last price % change open
  • +
  • XOM
    Exxon Mobil Cp
  • $74.38
  • -0.36%
  • $74.38

Q: You published a note last month titled "S&P 750: The Bottom." What led to that conclusion? A: A few things caught our eye. One was that we started to have some very bad days in November but the market still recovered. On Dec. 5, the unemployment news was really terrible and yet the market recovered that day, with the S&P closing up 3.7%. To us, those are signs of a positive market where people are starting to look beyond the bad news. We also like it that stocks such as ExxonMobil [XOM] and Chevron [CVX] are starting to do very well, even though oil prices have dropped. That suggests to me that people were trying to get into the market via the back door, because you could put a lot of money to work in an Exxon or Chevron.

People owning XOM also tend to own: AAAIGIBMINTCJNJJPMKO

TheStreet.com Rating: C+ What is this?

  • +
  • CVX
    Chevron Corp
  • $76.77
  • -0.74%
  • $76.85

Q: You published a note last month titled "S&P 750: The Bottom." What led to that conclusion? A: A few things caught our eye. One was that we started to have some very bad days in November but the market still recovered. On Dec. 5, the unemployment news was really terrible and yet the market recovered that day, with the S&P closing up 3.7%. To us, those are signs of a positive market where people are starting to look beyond the bad news. We also like it that stocks such as ExxonMobil [XOM] and Chevron [CVX] are starting to do very well, even though oil prices have dropped. That suggests to me that people were trying to get into the market via the back door, because you could put a lot of money to work in an Exxon or Chevron.

People owning CVX also tend to own: AAALLAPCBUDCOPDOWGSK

TheStreet.com Rating: B- What is this?

  • +
  • IBM
    Intl Business Mac
  • $126.96
  • -0.45%
  • $127.17

Q: In your note about the market having bottomed you were concerned about growth stocks. Why is that? A: There is a lot of money in growth mutual funds and aggressive growth mutual funds. But today in the category of growth, you would be hard-pressed to find many stocks doing well. You once had the Nifty Fifty or some group of stocks considered to be in the growth category and where a lot of people were active. But today it is very hard to find names that are so categorized. In the past, they have been the focus of attention and been able to pull the rest of the market ahead. But nowadays, a stock like an IBM [IBM] is just another stock, and it doesn't have the glamour or the halo effect these stocks were given in the past.

People owning IBM also tend to own: AAPLAMDCSCODELLGOOGINTCMSFT

TheStreet.com Rating: B+ What is this?

  • +
  • EBAY
    Ebay Inc.
  • $22.79
  • -1.72%
  • $23.06

Q: Where are you nibbling? A: We're willing to settle for 10% to 15% gains in a four- or five-day period, rather than buy and hold, because one quarter today can ultimately destroy a stock. For example, eBay [EBAY] was a growth stock until in the fourth quarter of 2004, when it missed its number, and since then it has gone off the charts. You can't just have a wonderful long-term perspective. We are willing to set up for 10% or 15% gains, especially in a short time period, because we've seen the markets reverse so often and so swiftly.

People owning EBAY also tend to own: AAADPAVPBACBRK-BBUDCSCO

TheStreet.com Rating: C+ What is this?

  • +
  • GE
    Gen Electric Co
  • $15.59
  • -1.08%
  • $15.66

Q: How about a few quick stock picks? A: We have a little bit of a different perspective on General Electric [GE]. Given that it pays an 8% dividend, it has limited downside, though it is probably not going to make us a whole of money in the next three to six months. But if we don't make money on GE in the next 12 or 18 months, then we've got some real problems.

People owning GE also tend to own: AIGBACCCOPCVXFNMJNJ

TheStreet.com Rating: C What is this?

  • +
  • AMZN
    Amazon.com
  • $129.66
  • +0.52%
  • $127.51

And we still like Amazon.com [AMZN]. It's a controversial name and the stock has had a difficult time, but we're encouraged by the success of its product known as the Kindle, an electronic book.

People owning AMZN also tend to own: AAPLAMTATHRBEASCTSHEMCGOOG

TheStreet.com Rating: B What is this?

  • +
  • HES
    Hess Cp
  • $58.84
  • +2.22%
  • $57.93

Another name we like is Hess [HES], an oil company. It's a solid company, and it has a very nice trading pattern between 42 or 43 and 50. We buy it low and try to sell it high.

People owning HES also tend to own: ADBEAGUCOINEBSEMUFRGGCT

TheStreet.com Rating: C+ What is this?

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A. Here's another one:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/173986-s
hipping-three-high-risk-high-reward-opti
ons

Also, DSX, for instance moved up after
hours.

It might depend on your timeframe. The
related indexes appear to be trending
up. (this is not a recommendation).

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