Date updated:04-25-2009
An Interview with Jason DeSena Trennert: How to profit from the next round of commodity-price inflation. Too much stimulation?

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LAZ
Lazard Ltd. - $36.82
- 0.00%
- $N/A
Q: Let's talk about a few specific investment recommendations. A: One would be Lazard [LAZ]. I like a lot of the midtier brokers -- because they have none of the legacy issues, and yet they are very likely to gain a lot of market share and a lot of talent from the big banks. The stock has moved up a lot since early March, from around 21 to 30 and change, and it's relatively expensive right now, trading at around 13.3 times forward earnings. But when the markets do come back, which they will, Lazard should be able to take a lot of share. Plus, Lazard has a traditional money-management operation that should be a big boost to earnings in the coming years.

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MO
Altria Group Inc - $19.37
- -0.05%
- $19.43
Q: Next pick, please. A: Altria Group [MO]. Discretionary spending is going to remain weak in our view. We also think there is a good chance that tobacco will be regulated by the FDA [Food and Drug Administration], which would essentially freeze the company's dominant market share. At 9.5 times forward earnings, it certainly trades at a reasonable multiple. It's attractive when you consider that the dividend yield is about 7.6%.

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SLB
Schlumberger Ltd - $62.12
- +0.10%
- $62.23
Another recommendation is Schlumberger [SLB]. We think of the oil-service sector as a good way to play oil if you think its price is going to rise to $50 to $75 a barrel, as we do. It's also a member of the Strategas Bellwether Index of companies with the highest correlations to swings in nominal GDP.

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GLD
Spdr Gold Shares - $104.04
- -0.61%
- $104.41
Q: Another of your recommendations is the SPDR Gold Shares [GLD], an exchange-traded fund and a way to get exposure to gold. What's to like there? A: It's attractive because, eventually, global investors are going to recognize that there are limits to what the U.S. can fund easily and, as a result, there is going to be a movement away from dollars into hard currencies. Now, the only reason why the dollar is hanging in there versus other major currencies like the euro and the yen is because they are in just as bad shape as we are. But at a certain point, reflation is a global phenomenon. Eventually, investors are going to decide that having some exposure to hard assets like gold is as good a hedge against inflation.
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