Barron's 2009 Roundtable Picks 1-24-2009
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Date updated:01-24-2009

In our final installment, Scott Black, Marc Faber, Mario Gabelli and Oscar Schafer take the floor to discuss the stocks and sectors that may reward investors.

symbol name last price % change open
  • +
  • ORCL
    Oracle Corporatio
  • $22.34
  • -0.22%
  • $22.28

Black: Oracle closed Friday [Jan. 2] at 18.41. It has 5.1 billion fully diluted shares, and a $94 billion market capitalization. Sales were $22.6 billion for the fiscal year ended May, with $1.30 a share in earnings. In the first half of this fiscal year, sales were $10.9 billion and earnings $3.3 billion, or 63 cents a share. In the second half, revenue could rise 3%, and with operating margins of 43%, profits before taxes are $5.27 billion. Taxed at 27%, earnings per share are $1.39. Adjust earnings for the cost of stock-based compensation, they're $1.33. The stock trades for 12.3 times calendar '09 estimates of $1.49. ROE is 32%. Oracle has earned 30% on equity, with no net debt, for about 10 years. It generated $3.25 billion in free cash in the first half of fiscal '09. It is a money machine, and it makes money on software-maintenance revenue. Larry Ellison [co-founder and CEO] is tough and demanding. About 50% of sales come from the Americas, 34% from Europe and the Middle East and 15% from Asia-Pacific. The company doesn't hedge currencies, so if the dollar sinks against the euro, it will benefit. Oracle's biggest competitor in database-management software and middleware is IBM [IBM].

People owning ORCL also tend to own: AAPLAMDCSCODELLGOOGIBMINTC

TheStreet.com Rating: B+ What is this?

  • +
  • GD
    Gen Dynamics Cp
  • $66.47
  • +0.14%
  • $66.23

Black: Most of the large acquisitions are behind them. There aren't many big players left. Acquisitions are beneficial. They were weak in China before buying BEA, which had a better organization. They made the head of the BEA office head of Oracle in China, and now have better penetration in China with the Oracle platform. Earlier today I said the U.S. should increase defense spending. Defense goods are manufactured here, which helps employment. General Dynamics is a great company, selling at one of the cheapest valuations in years. The stock is 59.76. There are 392 million fully diluted shares, and a $23.4 billion market cap. The dividend is $1.40, for a 2.3% yield. Revenue likely was $29.3 billion in 2008, up 7.5%. They could earn $6.15 to $6.20 a share.

People owning GD also tend to own: CBHCKFRDGXDKSGOOGGSIART

TheStreet.com Rating: B- What is this?

  • +
  • XTO
    Xto Energy Inc
  • $41.11
  • -1.25%
  • $41.35

Black: I value the gas reserves at $3 per Mcf and the oil at $8 per barrel. Breakup value is about $44 a share, so the stock is selling at 85% of breakup value. My 2009 revenue estimate is $9.86 billion -- slightly higher than the Street's -- which converts to $4.50 a share in earnings. Return on equity is 15.5%, return on total capital 10.3%. Free cash flow is $2.28 billion. XTO has cut its capital-spending budget this year, to $3.8 billion from more than $5.3 billion. They are wed to the notion of knocking $1 billion to $2 billion of debt off the balance sheet. Their finding and development costs were $1.45 to $1.50 per Mcfe in 2007, and $1.65 in 2008. This year they could fall to $1.50. XTO is one of the few energy companies with rising earnings, because of hedging. They will earn about $3.75 to $3.80 a share for 2008, and $4.50 for '09. The stock sells for 8.3 times earnings and 3.6 times discretionary cash flow. It is extremely cheap. You've got asset and earnings protection. And they are in every major field in the U.S. -- the Barnett Shale, Fayetteville and so forth. Energy is a controversial investment today, but XTO is the cream of the crop.

People owning XTO also tend to own: APAAPCBHICHKCOPCVXDVN

TheStreet.com Rating: B What is this?

  • +
  • ENDP
    Endo Pharmaceutic
  • $22.20
  • -0.58%
  • $22.30

Black: There is much more attention to strategic planning. They want to pick niche markets for R&D [research and development]. They are looking at urology and oncology, especially things like bladder and ovarian cancer. They have an internal salesforce of 800 people, and 275 contract salespeople. The one potential negative is that with Medicare Part D, and new managed-care initiatives, they might not have the ability to raise prices as they did in the past. But over all, you're paying about 10 times earnings for a company with 23% ROE, strong free-cash generation and a good management team.

People owning ENDP also tend to own: HPCMCFSFLEGLF.OBNMXRMTAKAM

TheStreet.com Rating: B- What is this?

  • +
  • AMN
    Ameron Inc
  • $61.53
  • -0.15%
  • $60.99

Black: Ameron has a good backlog. For each $100 million incremental increase in revenue under an infrastructure bill, based on 22% margins, they'd make $15.3 million after taxes. Tamco would be running at full capacity. Ameron has come down from a high of 138. While it is up from the absolute low of 32.50, it is cheap based on both tangible book value and expected earnings. It's an interesting way to play a pickup in infrastructure in California and the West.

People owning AMN also tend to own: AAPLMSFTBMSEDACOANADCBI

TheStreet.com Rating: C+ What is this?

  • +
  • GASS
    Stealthgas
  • $5.80
  • -5.69%
  • $5.93

Black: My last pick is an asset play, atypical for Delphi. ROE is only 10%, but the stock, StealthGas, is cheap. The company owns tankers that transport liquefied petroleum gas, or LPG. It's based in Athens. The stock is 4.73, there are 22.3 million fully diluted shares, and a market cap of $105 million. It pays a 75-cent dividend, for a 15.8% yield, but they may not continue to pay it. Some shareholders think they should buy back shares or knock down debt instead.

People owning GASS also tend to own: ARAYCHCG.OBCOGOCVYDUGFXEGE

TheStreet.com Rating: C What is this?

  • +
  • IBN
    Icici Bk Ltd Ads
  • $38.04
  • +2.64%
  • $38.09

Faber: Asians might go to casinos and gamble, but in their businesses they are ultra-conservative. In Thailand, buy Bangkok Bankand, Glow Energy, and in India, Icici Bank and Infosys Technologies. Banks in Singapore sell for 1.3 times book. In Thailand they are below book and have relatively high dividends. If all these companies drop another 50%, which I wouldn't rule out, buy more.

People owning IBN also tend to own: MSNCHLHMININTCMSFTPTRCTSH

TheStreet.com Rating: No Rating What is this?

  • +
  • INFY
    Infosys Technolog
  • $51.23
  • +0.55%
  • $51.38

Faber: Asians might go to casinos and gamble, but in their businesses they are ultra-conservative. In Thailand, buy Bangkok Bankand, Glow Energy, and in India, Icici Bank and Infosys Technologies. Banks in Singapore sell for 1.3 times book. In Thailand they are below book and have relatively high dividends. If all these companies drop another 50%, which I wouldn't rule out, buy more.

People owning INFY also tend to own: AAPLACNADSKANSSCDNSCTSHEBAY

TheStreet.com Rating: B What is this?

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