Date updated:01-17-2009
In our second installment, Bill Gross, Felix Zulauf, Archie MacAllaster and Abby Cohen take center stage to promote their investment picks and pans for 2008.

-
AIG
Amer Intl Group N - $22.16
- -1.12%
- $22.27
Gross: In the past three months, AIG bonds that are senior to the Treasury's $40 billion in preferred could be bought at 14%, 15%, 16% yields. You can buy them now at 11% and 12%, under the cover of nearly $200 billion of guarantees, or 2% of the outstanding debt of the U.S. Normally you can't have a bond yielding 14% without significant potential to default. It is the most incredible example of value I have ever seen in the bond market. AIG has a 10-year bond that can still be bought at 12.5%. Technically it's A-rated, but realistically it's close to triple-A. We own a lot of them.

-
TIP
Ishares Barclays - $104.93
- 0.00%
- $N/A
Gross: My next pick is Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS. Here's an example of deleveraging at work. Theoretically TIPS should have performed like Treasury bonds. Instead they went down in price while Treasuries have been going up. TIPS now sport real yields of 2.5% in an economy that is growing nowhere close to that. And that's before you tack on the inflation kicker. [The principal of a TIPS increases with inflation and decreases with deflation, as defined by the consumer-price index. TIPS also pay interest twice a year, at a fixed rate applied to the adjusted principal.] When an economy deleverages, almost every asset goes down. As Abby discussed this morning, hedge funds, levered institutions, sold what they could when they had to raise funds. TIPS were the most liquid thing in many levered portfolios, and the hedge funds have been spitting them out billions of dollars at a time. Yet, the potential for inflation five to 10 years from now is high. You can buy TIPS via the iShares Barclays TIPS Bond ETF [exchange-traded fund].

-
BEN
Franklin Res Inc - $96.30
- -1.73%
- $97.95
MacAllaster: My view is long-term. Franklin's success goes back a long way. This year the company will earn less than last year, and it may earn less next year, too. But it is going to end up a much bigger company because it will use its cash to buy assets. In two years it will be making more money than ever before. And remember, the stock was as high as 133 last year.

-
SVU
Supervalu Inc - $14.42
- -1.17%
- $14.61
MacAllaster: My second stock is Supervalu . It closed Friday [Jan. 2] at 14.88. The 12-month range has been 35.91 to 8.59. The company runs both wholesale and retail grocery operations. They've got the third-largest grocery chain in the U.S., after Wal-Mart Stores [WMT] and Kroger [KR]. Supervalu pays a dividend of 69 cents and yields 4%-plus. Book value per share is $29, just about double the stock price. [The company wrote down goodwill and intangible assets when it reported earnings Jan. 7. Book value is now around $16 a share.] Sales are flat to down in retail and positive in wholesale. Earnings were $2.76 a share in fiscal 2008, ended February, and should be about $2.75 for fiscal '09. The stock sells for five times earnings. Debt is high due to the purchase of the Albertsons grocery chain in 2006, but the company has been paying down between $400 million and $500 million a year. [It announced Jan. 7 that it would pay down $600 million in fiscal 2010.] Sales are about $45 billion.

-
WMB
Williams Cos - $20.50
- +1.18%
- $20.33
MacAllaster: My third stock is Williams Cos. , which produces and transports natural gas. The stock sells for 15.23. Once again, the range is 40.75 to 11.69. The dividend is 44 cents a year for a yield of 3%. They have raised the dividend in each of the past four or five years. Book value is about $15 a share, so the stock sells right around book. The company earned $1.40 a share in 2007. Last year's earnings haven't been announced yet but should be around $2.25 a share. This year they'll earn somewhat less -- $2 a share -- in view of the lower price of gas. But Williams has hedged a lot of its gas production, so its average selling price will be more than $7 per thousand cubic feet. Gas sells now for $5.50.

-
HIG
Hartford Fin Svc - $23.46
- -0.30%
- $23.83
Next, Hartford Financial Services. It was trading for 17.09 Friday [Jan. 2]. The range has been 85.11 to 4.16. How about that? The yield is a little under 8%. Book value is $41 a share. Earnings in 2007 were $8.25 a share. Recently Hartford raised its 2008 earnings estimate to $4.70 to $4.90 from about $4.30 to $4.50. I think they'll make better than $5 and maybe $6 a share in 2009. The company has given itself all kinds of flexibility.

-
MET
Metlife Inc - $33.64
- -3.00%
- $34.61
MacAllaster: Here are some one-liners: MetLife and Prudential Financial. MetLife is 36 a share; the range is 65 to 15. It yields a bit over 2%. Book value is $42 a share. The company raises the dividend every year. Any time you can buy MetLife under book value, you should.

-
PRU
Prudential Fincl - $47.02
- -3.11%
- $48.55
MacAllaster: Prudential is somewhat more speculative. It sells for 30.77. The range on the stock has been 92 to 13. Book is about $44 a share. Earnings for 2008 are estimated to be $3.50 a share. In '09 they could earn as much as $7. The dividend yield is 2%. In a few years this company, too, will be worth more.
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too hard pick a winner out all of them
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