Date updated:08-01-2007
Selective Contra with long volatility

-
NCT
Newcastle Inv Cp - $2.10
- 0.00%
- $N/A
70% commercial loan mezz positions. Only 30% of portfolio in residential subprime which was purchased July 12, 07 at a 35% discount to face. All of residential subprime was rated AA/Aa1 on July 26, 07 and securitized away. Loss on book equity potential is limited to $200M for residential in next 12 months.

-
CMA
Comerica Inc - $28.66
- +2.69%
- $28.37
No residential exposure. Mainly mid-market corporate senior debt loans. Dividend at 4.5% gives good income stream and price/book at 1.7X makes this a takeover target for a larger money center bank. Less Detroit corporate exposure than market thinks, albeit that sector is turning around.

-
HD
Home Depot Inc - $27.51
- +1.21%
- $27.37
Turnaround may take 2yrs, but dividend of 2.2% and huge buyback provides a floor to the price now. Most risk is priced in already in short term.

-
MAY
Malaysia Fd Inc T - $7.75
- 0.00%
- $N/A
Morgan Stanley does a terrible job of managing the discount of this closed end fund for Malaysia. Its more volatile than its ETF counterpart (EWM). Govt unpegged the currency in 3Q06 and exports of commodities gives good foreign reserves. Elections are coming end-2008, and fiscal stimuli already started.
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dollar.
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