Shorts and Longs of the Mortgage Fallout
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Date updated:03-17-2007

From Barron's 3-19-07

If mortgage lenders are nearer a bottom, it may be a while before their financial prospects brighten. For instance, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows rising delinquencies last quarter in prime-quality adjustable-rate mortgages once low teaser rates were nudged up.

A midweek bounce off the indexes' early-March low helped contain the carnage. But the fear of slowing growth persists, and its bleak view has increasingly found voice. "Subprime is today's dot-com -- the pin that pricks a much larger bubble" in asset-dependent America, says Morgan Stanley chief economist Stephen Roach. "To me, the real debate is about 'spillovers' -- whether the housing downturn will spread to the rest of the economy."

Here are a few companies that will continue to feel the effects of the mortgage fallout.

symbol name last price % change open
  • +
  • GS
    Goldman Sachs Grp
  • $115.06
  • -5.18%
  • $117.19

From Barron's 3-19-07 Solid earning reports from Goldman Sachs (GS) and Lehman Brothers (LEH), covering fiscal quarters that ended before late February, also helped soothe frayed nerves and buttress hopes that the subprime fallout remains contained -- for now.

People owning GS also tend to own: AOBCOGOCRYPGELGLWGRMNMDRX

TheStreet.com Rating: C What is this?

  • +
  • LEH
    Leh
  • $0.00
  • N/A
  • $N/A

From Barron's 3-19-07 Solid earning reports from Goldman Sachs (GS) and Lehman Brothers (LEH), covering fiscal quarters that ended before late February, also helped soothe frayed nerves and buttress hopes that the subprime fallout remains contained -- for now.

People owning LEH also tend to own: CMECVSDELLEBAYGEGSMCO

TheStreet.com Rating: D What is this?

  • +
  • ICE
    Intercntntlexchan
  • $68.63
  • -11.18%
  • $75.01

From Barron's 3-19-07 A surprise $9.9 billion bid by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) to merge with the Chicago Board of Trade (BOT), which is itself planning to merge with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), raised the specter of a bidding war and propped up the financial sector.

People owning ICE also tend to own: ADPADSKAGNAIGBABHICELG

TheStreet.com Rating: D+ What is this?

  • +
  • WSM
    Williams Sonoma I
  • $10.96
  • -3.27%
  • $11.02

From Barron's 3-19-07 Bullish call trading in Williams- Sonoma (WSM) -- amid speculation it might put itself up for sale -- reminded traders that fear can't expect to have the stage all to itself.

People owning WSM also tend to own: BBBYLOWGSMRVLAMGNDNADVN

TheStreet.com Rating: C What is this?

  • +
  • FRE
    Freddie Mac
  • $0.8299
  • -9.79%
  • $0.8895

From Barron's 3-19-07 For one thing, these government-sponsored mortgage-finance companies are less exposed to the credit risk of non-traditional mortgages. As yields rise with tightening credit, their cost of funding may not ratchet up as much given their implicit government backing, allowing them to lock in wider spreads in a challenging credit environment.

People owning FRE also tend to own: CCATDEFNMGEKOLLY

TheStreet.com Rating: D What is this?

  • +
  • FNM
    Fannie Mae
  • $0.7854
  • -12.73%
  • $0.8514

From Barron's 3-19-07 For one thing, these government-sponsored mortgage-finance companies are less exposed to the credit risk of non-traditional mortgages. As yields rise with tightening credit, their cost of funding may not ratchet up as much given their implicit government backing, allowing them to lock in wider spreads in a challenging credit environment.

People owning FNM also tend to own: ABPIADPTDCREBAYEDCIFMDHTE

TheStreet.com Rating: C What is this?

  • +
  • TOL
    Toll Brothers Inc
  • $19.92
  • -3.16%
  • $19.90

From Barron's 3-19-07 Not all homebuilders will fare equally as lending constricts. Toll Brothers (TOL) and KB Homes (KBH) are highly correlated stocks that have traded in sync 86% of the time over the past year. But Michael Benhamou, Louis Capital's London-based managing partner, sees a possible divergence ahead. For one thing, tightening credit will hit the lower end of the housing spectrum harder, and KB Homes serves a wider swath of first-time home owners. The average price of homes sold by KB is $277,000, compared with $690,000 for Toll, a luxury homebuilder. As lending tightens for new buyers, Benhamou reckons "Toll will outperform KB Homes by 15% over the next three months."

People owning TOL also tend to own: AFCEATARBLBPGFRNGEGGEMS

TheStreet.com Rating: C- What is this?

Portfolio not tracked!

09/28/2007 11:26 AM CDT Asked by deedeedum
i think the whole mortgage fallout portfolio is a good idea, with the way things are going right now with mortgages, the future isn't looking too bright for our economy

09/28/2007 11:22 AM CDT Asked by deedeedum
this whole mortgage meltdown thing is crazy, probably will affect a lot of mortgage stocks and kill our economy soon.......

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