Comments for ARAY - Stockpickr! Your Source for Stock Ideas

Comments for ARAY

Added By	Comments	Type	Date Added
Adrian Smith	Saved my life	Love	February 26, 2008
voltnfan	Bargain at $10 levels	Love	February 09, 2008
dice3510	GROWTH	Love	December 02, 2007
Windfall	Is this your last chance to buy ARAY on the cheap? One thing that I have learned about the market, big market moves generally do not occur when too many observers are predicting them. This seems to work both ways. When nearly everybody is on board the consensus, look out. You can get blindsided. Right now, the overwhelming market sentiment is gloom and doom and that probably indicates that all those doomsday scenarios are already priced into the market. The drive-by media want to lay it all off on the subprime fiasco. But once you get outside the housing and finance sectors, subprime is overplayed. The real reason why the market is in decline is anticipation of those typical Democratic policies, i.e., take as much as possible from successful people even if that hurts the economy so that you can play Robin Hood to all those voters that you can convince to have some reason to think of themselves as a victim. But comrade Hillary is not yet party chairman and, if voters get a chance to know her, she very well may not make it. This is one of the issues address by Doug Kass in his recent piece entitled, “This Bear Sees A Year-End Rally”. http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/s/kass-this-bear-sees-a-year-end-rally/newsanalysis/newsonthego/10389050.html? Accuray took quite a pounding back in August when Amit Hazan misreported a 2007Q4 profit of $0.01 EPS as a $0.49 EPS loss and further went on to incorrectly pooh-pooh their CyberKnife technology. Post 2008 ASTRO, we seem to have enough investors getting up to speed on the technology that even another downgrade by Hazan coupled with yet another erroneous earnings report (Accuray misses by $0.02 was reported by Briefing.com even though the company in fact hit its consensus estimate of $0.04 per share) hasn’t been able to keep the stock under $17 even during a week when the Dow dropped 4.1 percent and the NASDAQ 6.5 percent. Management forecast “a flat quarter” for 2008Q1 but still delivered on consensus EPS with record revenue. Their fiscal 2008 revenue guidance remains at $250 to $270 million. So if we start to get indications that the upturn in revenues management is projecting is, in fact, panning out, we are likely to see some appreciation in the share price, perhaps significantly so. We also might get some more positive news on the Medicare front. We have been trying to confirm a report that approval by Medicare for a reimbursement increase for CyberKnife has occurred or is imminent. If and when the announcement of this increase becomes official, look for investors to view this as a sign that government is starting to recognize the obvious cost advantages of CyberKnife SRS versus open surgery supported by chemotherapy and traditional radiotherapy. We might also get some positive news on the insurance reimbursement front. Aetna is already on record. Who’s next? How about a steady stream of announcements as the whole insurance field comes on board? I like the sound of that. Then we might also get some positive news from government-financed systems. We already have one unit sold to the VA and one to a private group in the U.K. If the VA comes on for more units and/or the bureaucrats running the U.K. and/or other public health systems catch on to the cost saving advantages of CyberKnife, we could see a major announcement or two from these sectors. We might also get some positive news in terms of clinical results. Dr. Jack Roth, a leading thoracic surgeon at M.D. Anderson, has already come on board to lead a study comparing the outcomes of CyberKnife SRS versus open surgery for early-stage lung cancer. Dr. Roth has already stated that he expects CyberKnife to hold its own, "The results achieved with radiosurgery appear to be comparable to those achieved with traditional surgery for early stage lung cancer patients… The results of this study may change the way lung cancer patients are treated." It will probably be at least a year before the results from the Roth/Anderson study start to trickle in but over the next few quarters, we could see publication of other ongoing research with respect to CyberKnife. The clinicians involved with CyberKnife are clearly enthusiastic about its results. This is going to become more apparent as we go forward. Word-of-mouth is huge for CyberKnife. Patients are seeking out this treatment option. Existing CyberKnife centers are experiencing high demand for these services. They are also advertising their successes with the effect being that an even greater wave of interest is building. The bottom line is the future of therapeutic radiation is SRS and Accuray has far and away the best SRS technology protected by dozens of U.S. and international patents and software copyrights. It’s not a matter of if Accuray will dominate this market. It’s only a matter of how soon. Wanting to time your move and find another bottom for ARAY is only natural. At this point in time, however, you may have more to risk by waiting than by jumping in. Long term, we know we’re going to win and win big. Right now, short term is looking pretty good as well.	Love	November 10, 2007
casecollectibles	2nd too ISRG, when ppl start selling ISRG they will jump onto this solid stock. CYBERKNIFE	Love	October 29, 2007
Nuiansound	reomended	Love	October 29, 2007
supratrade	BUY	Love	October 12, 2007
erike	couldn't pull trigger on isrg. now may be too late. could be the next breakout med stock	Love	October 10, 2007
kitkanpro	Found on ISRG InvestorVillage message board; investigated company data available online and latest professional commentary and believe it merits following and perhaps buying some shares	Love	October 03, 2007
kitkanpro	Found on ISRG InvestorVillage message board; investigated company data available online and latest professional commentary and believe it merits following and perhaps buying some shares	Love	October 03, 2007
Windfall	Actually, the previous fiscal year Q4 posted a loss of $0.49 per share. Fiscal 4Q revenue and fiscal 2007 revenue and earnings were all at record levels as was the order backlog (now up to $619 million). My guess is that you had a few large VC shareholders with free-trading shares obtained pre-IPO and who needed to wait until after an earnings announcement to cash in (for insider trading compliance). Otherwise, why would you sell at a loss on the news that your company is progressing nicely? Most of the investors who got in post-IPO paid well over $18 a share primarily on the vision that ARAY might be the next ISRG. Then you get tangible results that say you are on track to not only do just that but get there in about half the time as well, and you decide to sell at a loss? That's hard to see. More likely those selling on Friday were set to sell no matter how the earnings report came out. How many fast-growing, hi-tech, medical equipment companies are trading at less than 16 times forward earnings? This is one where you need to be able to weather the storm and sit tight. Perhaps the most significant and informative thing that was said on the earnings call came not from Accuray officers but from an analyst who offered that Varian had done a good job of confusing the (stock) market as to the SRS capabilities of its Trilogy series machines. He could have added in Tomo as well. Here is an interesting recent exchange from the CyberKnife Patient Support Group wherein Dr. Clinton Medbery of St. Anthony Hospital CyberKnife Center tries to clear up various misconceptions relative to Trilogy and CyberKnife. http://www.cyberknifesupport.org/forum/default.aspx?f=16&m=14240 Dr. Medbery gets a bit technical but basically what he is saying is that the CyberKnife has a proprietary design that, until they repeal the laws of physics and geometry, makes it the only system appropriate for extra-cranial SRS. Surveys of the actual usage of these devices confirm exactly what Dr. Medbery is saying as the CyberKnife is the only machine with any significant clinical acceptance whatsoever in the extra-cranial SRS field. So anytime you hear the phrase “__________ is more versatile than CyberKnife”, what they are really saying is that, for marketing purposes, __________ may claim that it is capable of doing SRS but its real application is conventional radiotherapy and it is rarely, if ever, actually used for SRS because it was never designed for that and the best tool for that procedure is the CyberKnife.” Also notable from the earnings call were several analysts who said their research indicated a slow down in orders and installations for Accuray’s competitors. Accuray CEO Euan Thompson followed this up by saying that sales for conventional radiotherapy devices have, in recent history, been driven by the replacement of older equipment. He agreed that this sales cycle is being disrupted, in part, by hospitals taking the time to study the feasibility of converting their existing radiotherapy rooms into CyberKnife Centers (as opposed to replacing their old equipment with more conventional devices). Dr. Thompson further offered that, once a potential buyer made the decision to go into the SRS business, the choice to go with CyberKnife, as opposed to the other “more versatile” machines that claim SRS capabilities, was a given. It may take some time for the market to sort it all out but two points are clear: 1. The field of extra-cranial stereotactic radiosurgery is growing rapidly. 2. Accuray dominates this market and will continue to do so because it has, far and away, the best SRS technology.	Love	August 23, 2007
Bpatel2290	Accuray (ARAY ), which makes and distributes robotic radiosurgery systems for tumor treatment, lost 25.9%, to $13.32 Friday. The company said Thursday after the close that revenue rose to $44 million from $21.4 million in the year-ago quarter, but it earned $502,000, or one cent a share, compared to $7.86, or 49 cents a share, in the year-ago quarter. Excluding items, it earned 5 cents a share this quarter. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial had expected 3 cents a share. The stock traded to a 52-week low.	Love	August 20, 2007
Windfall	CKSociety.org is now showing 111 locations. That should translate to 10 new installs during fiscal Q4 which would give ARAY a record quarter and fiscal year ending 30 June 2007 with six new installs during the first six weeks of fiscal Q1 2008. We’ll have to wait until close of market tomorrow but it looks like a good report about to come in at ARAY.	Love	August 15, 2007
dredizzle	tech high growth and potential	Love	August 10, 2007
fcg	Strong Growth vs Valuation	Love	August 02, 2007
Windfall	Update: The CyberKnife Society web site is not showing 107 total locations.	Love	July 18, 2007
Windfall	Just rechecked the CKS website site and they have added another CyberKnife site bringing the total number of locations up to 105 and the total number of units up to at least 108. Did that last unit come online in June or July and are there only three locations with multiple units or did another one of the six multiple unit locations come on line in June? Accuray.com site still lags on the site count. They are only showing 101. Maybe they are waiting for their next 10K before updating the list? Shareholders that are selling off in anticipation of a seven-unit quarter are going to be unhappy. The CKS list is indicating at least a 10-unit quarter that will exceed analyst expectations big time and put the fiscal year also above even the high estimates. This is a weird situation. You have two CyberKnife location lists. The one that is easy to find portends a mediocre quarter. The one that is more difficult to find is showing enough locations for a record quarter boosting the fiscal year also to record highs.	Love	July 17, 2007
Windfall	Shorters beware an earnings surprise on the upside at Accuray. If you check out the CyberKnife Centers section of the Accuray web site (which is very prominently displayed at the upper right hand corner of the front page) and count up the number of installations, you get 101 sites with three sites known to have two units each for a total of 104 units in operation. If these were indeed the current numbers, it would indicate that Accuray has added seven locations since its last quarterly report. This would translate into unit sales revenues of about $28 million. With service contracts and other recurrent income, this would project out to total Q4 revenues of about $38 million. In terms of analysts’ expectations, this result would be better than the low estimates but slightly less than the average estimates and, hence, you would expect the market to begin to discount the shares accordingly (which it has done). No problem, right? Everything is as it should be, right? But now check out the Patient section of the Accuray web site and then scan down the text in the middle of the page to find your way to the link to the CyberKnife Society web site and then find your way to the link entitled List All CyberKnife Centers. Now you find three additional sites for a total of 104 sites with at least 107 units in operation. So, in fact, Accuray has at least 10 new units installed in Q4 which translates into total unit sales revenues of about $40 million which, with service contracts and other recurrent income, will project out to record Q4 revenues of over $50 million. In terms of analysts’ expectations, this result is significantly better than the average estimates which also have a targeted share price of about $26.25. Shorters beware. There are definitely enough units in operation to give the share price a big bounce come the release of Accuray’s Q4 results and there may even be a unit or two that is not yet listed on the CyberKnife Society web site.	Love	July 12, 2007
marty4015	hot tip	Love	June 30, 2007
marktheshark	Multi year backlog, good product story	Love	June 21, 2007
Windfall	Has by far the most accurate and effective radiation deliver technology. Harvard says results are on par or better than conventional surgery without the risks or recovery issues. When word gets out to the patient community, this company will dominate the market worldwide.	Love	April 23, 2007
AlbertMason	Potentially the next ISRG - Medical field Robotics	Love	April 19, 2007
rameses	medical instrument niche	Love	April 13, 2007
patuleia	Bull	Love	March 28, 2007
LaceDocFL	potential to be another ISRG	Love	March 19, 2007