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Blogs about BLS

Blogs	Description	Date Updated
Employment Situation Preview: A Risky Outlook	Each month we report the results from our payroll employment model. This is not really a forecast. We take a number of different economic indicators from the middle of the preceding month and ask what change in payroll employment is consistent with the other data. The variables are not causally related, but are all different measures of the economy.We get a pretty good fit from the University of Michigan sentiment reading (yet another new low this month), the four-week average ...	July 01, 2008
The Unemployment Severity Index	The BLS collects and publishes a massive data collection. No single researcher can appreciate all of it, but there is something there for nearly everyone.There is a problem that can come from too much data. Journalists must make choices about what to report. How does one determine the real story?Background: Measures of UnemploymentLast week we applauded the effort of Barry Ritholtz at The Big Picture, one of our featured sources, to broaden media coverage of unemployment data. Barry so...	June 18, 2008
Understanding Unemployment Rates	At "A Dash" we are advocates of a careful, balanced consideration of economic data. We accept the results whether they are hopeful or dismal. We do not shift our chosen indicators with the wind. Investors should do the same.Barry Ritholtz at The Big Picture, one of our featured sites, has made a useful suggestion concerning balanced reporting on unemployment. While we agree with his general point, there is a bit more to the story. Barry's opinions are quite important. The impact of f...	June 12, 2008
Understanding Unemployment Rates	At "A Dash" we are advocates of a careful, balanced consideration of economic data. We accept the results whether they are hopeful or dismal. We do not shift our chosen indicators with the wind. Investors should do the same.Barry Ritholtz at The Big Picture, one of our featured sites, has made a useful suggestion concerning balanced reporting on unemployment. While we agree with his general point, there is a bit more to the story. Barry's opinions are...	June 12, 2008
Forecasting the Payroll Employment Number	Each month credit and equity market observers alike pounce on the Employment Situation Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Markets gyrate wildly when the actual result is 40,000 or 50,000 payroll jobs away from the economic forecasts.This is a big mistake. Here is the problem. The level of change that the market believes to be significant, is not great enough to be measured by the BLS tools. It is like measuring a hair with a grade-school ruler.And that is just th...	June 05, 2008
Forecasting the Payroll Employment Number	Each month credit and equity market observers alike pounce on the Employment Situation Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Markets gyrate wildly when the actual result is 40,000 or 50,000 payroll jobs away from the economic forecasts.This is a big mistake. Here is the problem. The level of change that the market believes to be significant, is not great enough to be measured by the BLS tools. It is like measuring a hair with a grade-school ruler.And that is just the measurement is...	June 05, 2008
Forecasting the Payroll Employment Number	Each month credit and equity market observers alike pounce on the Employment Situation Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Markets gyrate wildly when the actual result is 40,000 or 50,000 payroll jobs away from the economic forecasts.This is a big mistake. Here is the problem. The level of change that the market believes to be significant, is not great enough to be measured by the BLS tools. It is like measuring a hair with a grade-school ruler.And that is just the measurement is...	June 05, 2008
Forecasting the Payroll Employment Number	Each month credit and equity market observers alike pounce on the Employment Situation Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Markets gyrate wildly when the actual result is 40,000 or 50,000 payroll jobs away from the economic forecasts.This is a big mistake. Here is the problem. The level of change that the market believes to be significant, is not great enough to be measured by the BLS tools. It is like measuring a hair with a grade-school ruler.And that is just the measurement is...	June 05, 2008
Forecasting the Payroll Employment Number	Each month credit and equity market observers alike pounce on the Employment Situation Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Markets gyrate wildly when the actual result is 40,000 or 50,000 payroll jobs away from the economic forecasts.This is a big mistake. Here is the problem. The level of change that the market believes to be significant, is not great enough to be measured by the BLS tools. It is like measuring a hair with a grade-school ruler.And that is just the measurement is...	June 05, 2008
Forecasting the Payroll Employment Number	Each month credit and equity market observers alike pounce on the Employment Situation Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Markets gyrate wildly when the actual result is 40,000 or 50,000 payroll jobs away from the economic forecasts.This is a big mistake. Here is the problem. The level of change that the market believes to be significant, is not great enough to be measured by the BLS tools. It is like measuring a hair with a grade-school ruler.And that is just the measurement is...	June 05, 2008

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