In turbulent economic times such as these, it's exciting to find companies whose stocks are up on the year. Management teams that are able to deliver strong value to shareholders in any economic environment must be commended. Even solid companies such as Google (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT) are down right now.
With this in mind, we thought we'd take a look at five stocks that, despite various economic and sector headwinds, investors love right now, and see if we love them, too.
Amgen (AMGN): Despite all of Amgen's problems with its key drug Aranesp, Amgen shares are still loved by investors as the stock has soared this year, up a whopping 40%. The company has done some serious cost cuts, cutting about 12% to14% of employees this year, which slashed cap-ex by almost $2 billion. Management has been emphasizing the companies 30-plus drugs in clinical trials, with six drugs in late-stage trails. Most promising is a drug called denosurmab, or "D-mab," which could hit the U.S. market by 2010. Amgen has been very positive about D-mab, which would open the company's door to the $7 billion osteoporosis market. Sales could range from $2 billion to $3 billion. With a forward P/E of 14.45 and enterprise value/EBITDA of 11.3, Amgen on its 52-week high is still a buy.
Tootise Roll (TR): Tootsie Roll, 50 cents off its 52-week high, is extremely overvalued, trading with a forward P/E of 35, price-to-sales of 3.1 and EV/EBITDA of 18.3. Technology giant Google, the fastest-growing company in the S&P 500, is trading with a forward P/E of 20, price-to-sales of 7.8 and EV/EBITDA of 19.7. I find it mind-blowing that investors are willing to pay similar valuations for the future cash flows of Tootsie Roll in a dead growth business as they are for Google. Near its 52-week high Tootise Roll must be sold.
Target (TGT): As commodity prices fall off the face of the earth (in terms of price), consumer discretionary companies are now facing an additional tailwind to their share prices; shockingly enough, Target is up about 15% for the year. Target is also a top holding of David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital. Bill Ackman of Pershing Square is also a large holder in Target (with a 12% economic interest). Ackman successfully called the downfall of bond-insure MBIA (MBI) over the past two to three years. Given these investors' long-term track records and the fact that Target has recently bought back about 100 million shares, Target is a buy.
CSX (CSX): Despite all of the changes that The Children's Investment Fund wants to make to railroad provider CSX, up 20% for the year, CSX and its CEO Michael Ward have handily outperformed the market. Heck, even in this weak domestic and global environment, CSX lifted its annual earnings guidance to $3.65 to $3.75 a share from $3.40 to $3.60 a share. CSX also lifted its capital spending in the year to $1.75 billion and free cash flow before the dividend to $1 billion. CSX is a buy.
Beacon Roofing Supply (BECN): As housing starts slide to a 17-year low, investors should be selling Beacon Roofing, which roofs various commercial and residential houses. It is impossible to predict when housing will bottom, but sitting on its 52-week high, Beacon has certainly gotten ahead of itself. Beacon trades with a forward P/E of 18.44.
So there you have it. These five stocks are riding high and their management teams might be doing something right, but that doesn't mean you should rest easy. Do your homework before you jump in.
Posted on Sept. 19, 2008



