Cineman and Old Media Stocks

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From Barron's 5-7-07

"An area currently in vogue, which I find very interesting, is movie-theater chains. Three or four years ago they got into trouble because they grossly overexpanded, borrowed a lot of money and lost money. Some of them went bankrupt, some of them got absorbed. The characteristics of this business are terrific cash flow and no inventory. Once you stop spending on new theaters and new screens, there are no capital expenditures. If you have ever gone to a movie theater and spent $4 for a bag of popcorn, you know the gross margins are ridiculous. Cash flows are terrific. Now, the private-equity guys are bringing them public...There is fairly high confidence that there will be nice incremental box-office receipts this year versus last. That produces high earnings and great comparisons. Whether or not you raise interest rates or housing is strong or not strong, people are going to go to the movies to see these films, buy popcorn and generate a lot of income. The companies will be paying down their debt and improving their balance sheets. Then, there's the alternative programming that will create excitement."

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