Barron's Roundtable: Marc Faber

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Faber is a former Managing Director for Drexel Burnham in Honk Kong and is now the author and publisher of the popular Gloom, Boom and Doom Report newsletter.

In Part 3 of Barron's 2007 Roundtable, published in the magazines Jan 29 issue, Faber stated that he thinks we are in a “huge debt bubble” and even though central banks won’t tighten, a fall in asset prices will achieve the same function. The best indication of when this happens is when Goldman’s stock goes down.

His macro bet for the year is being long the Yen. In his own words:

“I would also bet on volatility this year, and here's the way I'd play it. Consider the carry trade -- investors borrowing in yen and investing in higher-yielding assets around the world. The more speculative the assets, the more interested they are. They're not buying dividend-paying assets, but assets like the Indian stock market. The yen carry trade will unwind when, suddenly, these risky assets begin to perform badly relative to cash rates in Japan or the Japanese stock market. Then leverage will be reduced and people will reinvest in yen. When the reversal occurs, the yen will soar against, say, the U.S. dollar. My macro pick for 2007 is to buy the yen or long-dated calls on the yen. In the long run, it is a bad policy to borrow in a low-yielding currency and invest in a high-yielding currency. It works for one year, two years, three years, and suddenly it massively doesn't work.”

He is also bullish on gold, silver, soft commodities and farmland.

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