Barron's Mid-Yr. Roundtable: John Neff

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John Neff is known as the manager of the Vanguard Windsor Fund from which he recently retired. He is a hard-core value investor, looking to buy good companies with moderate growth and high dividends while out of favour, and selling once they rise to fair value. Neff is regarded as 'the professional's professional', because many fund managers entrusted their money to him in the belief that it would be in safe hands. That view was justified by his remarkably consistent performance. For more than 30 years, the Windsor Fund routinely featured in the top 5 percent of all US mutual funds.

In Barron’s mid-year 2007 Roundtable, published in the magazine's June 18th issue, Neff offers his take on the market and his top pick:

"I'm using $100 for S&P 500 earnings in 2008, which would mean a gain of about 8%, based on my '07 estimates. The market sells for 15.3 times my '08 number, which isn't outlandish, particularly relative to the alternatives. The bond market doesn't look attractive, and commercial real estate has had an awfully good move and in some cases looks overdone. The stock market looks OK until we have a recession. An 8% increase in earnings and a 2% dividend yield give you a total return of 10%. That's attractive". But he noted the overabundance of private equity deals bothers him.

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