Posts by SKYSURFERJ23

• Q: What part of these statements make you believe that the economy has improved?
  
  1. “Financial institutions generally reported steady to weaker loan demand,
  continued tight credit standards, and steady or deteriorating loan quality.”
  2. While the labor market “remained weak since the last report, with further
  layoffs, sluggish hiring and high levels of unemployment in most districts,”
  3. While most regions reported increased home sales, new construction was
  “generally characterized as weak.” Three districts showed “some pickup”
  in home building, two reported declines and three said it was “flat or
  stabilizing.” (5 of 8 were flat or declining)
  
  What level of critical thinking is the market displaying? The Fed leads with
  "the economy has improved" and then gives a bunch of reasons why it hasn't. But
  it is spun as "better than expected" and the lemmings on Wall Street bid up the
  market on no volume tick for tick with a declining currency. This is madness!
  I congratulate all of you who are able to trade this market and take what it is
  giving you. You are a better trader than I. I am trying to learn that skill.
  Seriously, is there anything that this market will take as negative other than a
  rate increase?
  
  Here is the link to the bloomberg article I quoted from:
  http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ab1ziphmh_cI&pos=5
• Asked by skysurferj23 - 1 months ago - 5 answers - 241 views
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• A: how dare u state the facts. this is the graetest perfect v-shape recovery ever.the economy
  is doing fantastic and could not be in better shape.....just kidding ,i agree with u 100%.
  do not forget that wallstreet will alway over shoot the down side and the upside.u will
  not see any major decline this month due to the whole history of how dec is the best month
  for stocks( the santa rally b.s.)even last year the market took a break from falling in
  dec.what will be the bulls catalyst jan 1st??? bad news??? too many people r v shape bulls
  when at best this is a flat line market. they r long because they have to be long ,they
  have to make up for a bad 2008 .remember that most funds r long funds . more
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• Q: Will anything make the Fed defend the dollar?
  
  Oil at almost $82, Gold at all time highs, Euro 1.50, US Dollar index 75. I was
  4 when the 70's ended, it looks like I will get to see a replay.
• Asked by skysurferj23 - 1 months ago - 2 answers - 193 views
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• A: not this year more
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• Q: Let's see what we have this week. The dollar is dead, and everyone knows, and
  likes, it. A Dow 10000 Special (Again!) on CNBC. Cramer's Book entitled
  "Getting Back to Even" is released. I keep hearing that money managers have to
  be in due to performance axiety, therefore we have a free ride up an elevator.
  What happens when those guys decide that 60% off the lows is enough and need to
  protect profits? I am not calling for an immenent turn in the markets with this
  momentum, but my warning bells are ringing.
• Asked by skysurferj23 - 1 months ago - 3 answers - 284 views
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• A: Since when is 60% enough? Wall St. never gets enough. Americans never get enough. They're
  pigs. more
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• Q: Does anyone else think we are getting near a turning point in the dollar?
  
  It seems as if everyone has a gold $1500, $2000 or even $5000 prediction, just
  like $200 oil. The media is all over this. Check out the Drudge report (not
  making a political comment here)"Kiss the Dollar Goodbye!" There isn't an
  alternative to the dollar yet. Europe and Japan don't want a weaker dollar.
  China may for a little bit, but as the largest foreign holder of dollars, I
  would think they would like a stronger dollar. Finally, the Fed may lose
  control of its "orderly" devaluation if they don't defend the dollar here. I
  think that the dollar will reverse for the intermediate term in the next couple
  of weeks.
• Asked by skysurferj23 - 1 months ago - 8 answers - 287 views
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• A: The Chinese cannot afford the US Dollar to devalue. Interest rates will once again rise in
  the US and will help to support the US Dollar. Does anybody talk about the British Pound
  Sterling? Take a look at GBP/USD over 5 years. That currency has weakened again the US
  Dollar also. Why would anyone want to hold Japanese Yen? That country is not going to be
  able to compete with China and South Korea in the long run. Dollar bashing is great for
  sound bites but there is more to foreign exchange than meets the eye. more
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• Q: Question for the bulls.
  
  Is the bull thesis that less revenues plus increased layoffs equals better
  profit margins and a sustainable economic advance?
  
  I am just asking, because that is the only thing I can gain from the reaction to
  this earnings season. I was going to fight it, but the "wisdom" of crowds,
  especially if they have lots of capital and a government backstopping them, is a
  pretty powerful thing. It all makes perfect sense really. Freight and rail
  shipments are down 20-30% yoy, CAT beat because of a weak dollar, most companies
  have missed on revenue, but beat on the bottom line because of lay offs, er
  "cost cutting".
  
  It all makes perfect sense. Companies are seeing weak revenue, and nothing in
  the economic reports are showing a first derivative turn in spending or access
  to credit for small and medium businesses. The companies still have employees,
  so as long as revenues stay weak, companies will be still be able to layoff
  workers, or just cut hours worked, to increase profit margins and thus beat
  low-balled earnings expectations. Since the increased layoffs lead to weaker
  revenues in the long run, companies will be able to layoff more workers to cut
  costs even more. This virtuous cycle will be able to repeat ad infinitum, thus
  giving us a sustainable economic recovery and a bull market that will make 82-00
  look like mere table scraps. Right?
  
  Disclosure-Long the market until at least 1034, or I get stopped out below 950.
• Asked by skysurferj23 - 1 months ago - 3 answers - 235 views
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• A: how on earth could it make sense,if companies keep whittling down jobs, for the bottom
  line. whats gonna happen when they can't cut anymore and reality sets in. and were all
  waitng for jobs to be created by all this so called stimulus. more
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• Q: Does anybody just ever sell it all and take a couple of weeks break? I just
  don't get this market right now at all. In the past when I have felt like I
  knew it all, I should've sold. Now I feel like I am a complete idiot and feel
  like covering, especially since the only thing I hear about is S&P 1000.
  
  What do you do when you are burned out?
• Asked by skysurferj23 - 1 months ago - 3 answers - 367 views
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• A: you can always sell and preserve you're capital, assuming you were in play last 6 weeks.
  Nothing wrong with that, but when stocks you have owned go up, it will make you want to
  get back in the game.
  
  If you sell all, why not aggressively go after a few stocks, with larger investments and
  make a few long "trades" with stops, until the market turns around. more
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• Q: New Question: Does anybody have information on FAS 140? thestreet.com TV has an
  interesting video discussing its potential effects on banks. Combine that and
  the Fed wanting firms to raise more capital to payback TARP and something seems
  amiss. I thought a firm passing the stress test meant they didn't need more
  capital a couple of weeks ago? Hmmm...
• Asked by skysurferj23 - 1 months ago - 0 answers - 171 views
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• Q: Does anyone feel like today was a replay of last Monday? Market seemingly ready
  to roll over except big buying on the open to reverse the futures. Eerily
  similar except for more gains on less volume. Not that volume matters anymore.
  Things that make you go hmmm.
• Asked by skysurferj23 - 1 months ago - 4 answers - 284 views
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• A: at close, there are buy imbalance. Fund manager tries to match index so buying a lot. I am
  looking to a down day next 2 days. more
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• Q: Jim-Why is this 1990-91 for the banks and not 1929-30, 1873 or even 1720? The
  amount of credit being destroyed world wide is much more than the fed can print,
  even though they are trying. Hardly any of these programs from the government
  help the common man. Low interest rates? Great! Now try to refi if you bought
  your house within the last 4-5 years. You can't because you need 20% equity.
  Jobs? Um, right. Maybe I'm jaded beceause I live in the Central Valley of
  California and there is 18% unemployment, a drought and a state government that
  can't find its own backside. But last I looked California is a big part of the
  U.S. economy, and it won't get better anytime soon. Also if you wonder what the
  economy will look like in 5 years, look at California, cuz all of these "new"
  policies from the administration have already been tried here.
• Asked by skysurferj23 - 1 months ago - 5 answers - 193 views
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• A: or 1837 while youre at it. more credit was taken out of the system than the fed can print.
  i couldnt agree more. thing is, credit seems to be coming back.
  
  (no, it wont reach where its at, but it doenst need to IMO)
  
  i think the feds actions have greatly helped all people. id challenge anyone to say that
  if the fed didnt step into the commercial paper market that we wouldnt have dropped down
  even further than we already have. that wouldnt have helped the average person.
  
  also, i live in CA as well. do you see more people shopping where you are at? in the last
  2 weeks or so? i have.
  
  as for what the economy will look like in a few years. i dont know, im not gifted enough
  to predict the future. more
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• Q: This is an honest question, not a rant. BAC's market cap is around $50 billion,
  they need to raise capital equal to 2/3's of their company. FAS 140 (bringing
  all off-balance sheet entities on to the balane sheet) is a real possiblity,
  which JPM, the strongest, warns would negatively impact their balance sheet.
  Why would you buy a financial as an investment right now, considering they are
  up so much?
• Asked by skysurferj23 - 1 months ago - 4 answers - 246 views
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• A: because theyre going higher. not saying it isnt a gamble, but then again im not one to say
  every trade isnt a gamble. more
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