Posts by RYAN4891

• Q: Dan,
  
  what was your worst month and/or year, and how did you bounce back from it?
  
  what adjustments mentally and strategically did you make?
  
  
  thanks in advance. always fun to chat with a pro
• Asked by Ryan4891 - 1 months ago - 1 answers - 834 views
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• A: Can't recall exactly where the worst month/year was...but I do recall the process used to
  bounce back -- which was by trial and error.
  
  First, when you really take a nasty loss (or bunch of losses), you're shaken pretty badly.
  Lots of self-doubt, chastisement, self-flagellation, anger, depression, etc. Nothing
  really good comes from it.
  
  My first tactic was to "trade harder". That didn't work. Trading is hard.
  Period. You cannot "try harder" and get better results. You have to "try
  different". Figure out what you did wrong...and then don't do it.
  
  Second, I ultimately withdrew from trading for a period of a couple of weeks...maybe a
  month. I'm an attorney, physical therapist, land developer, etc...I can always find
  something to do other than trading. And I think having other options gives you an edge.
  You don't HAVE to trade. Therefore, you can keep a better perspective than the guy with
  $20,000 who honestly, sincerely (and wrongly) believes that doing it full time via buying
  call options on high-fliers will enable him to make a living. Good luck! Gotta have
  capital to trade right. And that means that the best trade is often to take a second job
  and bank the money.
  
  So when I was away from trading, I still watched the market. Every day. Thought about it
  constantly (that's what traders do). And I also came to understand the things I was doing
  wrong. I was trading too big when I "had a sure thing." I was refusing to be
  wrong because I did not want to take a loss (because it would have been too big). I was
  revenge trading, where I'd go after a stock that had taken my money (which is one of the
  dumbest ass things you can do. As if EMLX really knows who you are? Stocks don't lose
  money. People do.) I was managing risk solely through position size rather than buying
  levels....etc.
  
  So I came to understand that. And having gained that understanding, I then started to
  wade back into the market very, very lightly. Focusing on trading well rather than
  trading to make my money back. Trying to "make your money back" is dumb. It is
  a common tactic, but rarely used with success. Every day, your account is marked to
  market (unlike the banks, I guess). So you have what you have. Focusing on yesterday's
  balance is a waste of time unless you have a time machine.
  
  So I started trading slowly, developed some better habits, and then just kept learning.
  
  Always learn. The best traders are intellectually curious. They always want to learn,
  and most never feel that they know enough. Some do. But they are fooling themselves.
  
  So just gradually focus on doing the right things and you can "come back" from
  anything...simply because you are not "coming back". You are moving ahead. more
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• Q: Dan
  
  What is your take on using inflation adjusted charts as a means of understanding
  the long term structure of the market?
  
  also, do you find these--as well as other unconventional charts--tradeable? or
  strictly an academic exercise.
• Asked by Ryan4891 - 1 months ago - 1 answers - 416 views
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• A: Hi Ryan. Great question. Honestly (and I'm sincere when I say this...not humble), I'm
  probably not smart enough to figure out how to use the unconventional charts. The one you
  mention is a longer term perspective. And that wouldn't really give me a tradeable edge
  because everything runs with inflation. I'd expect that inflation-adjusted performance
  shows a more tepid performance over the long term. And short term? I don't think that
  stuff matters.
  
  But again, I could be missing something due to my own ignorance and/or inexperience. I'm
  sure some very astute investors more
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• Q: Larson,
  
  what criteria, if any, do you look for to diagnose a **false** breakout?
• Asked by Ryan4891 - 1 months ago - 2 answers - 776 views
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• A: i used to watch/have nflx...i got out right about the time GS got in....they've been
  making mad money huh? more
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• Q: Dan,
  
  you talked before about trading volatility squeezes. i happen to have a few ways
  i trade this myself but was curious what your criteria is to standardize it? (if
  you have one)
  
  does the Bollinger Bands have to contract by X% for you to start looking?
  anything in that ball park that you scan for? Or is it just, you tend to
  'stumble' upon it and then take the trade from there?
• Asked by Ryan4891 - 1 months ago - 2 answers - 923 views
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• A: burberry outlet stores that introduced
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  mall more
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• Q: Dan
  
  whats your favorite price pattern to trade?
  
  is it your favorite because of its risk profile? potential for explosive
  profits? consistency in making profits?
  
  or some other reason entirely
• Asked by Ryan4891 - 1 months ago - 1 answers - 717 views
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• A: Depends on what the market is doing. Flat triangle breakouts work quite well when the
  market is either oversold or just starting a trend that is sustainable. But as a rule, I
  like volatility expansions best. They are more predictable and generally make money. more
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• Q: Dan
  
  which one of your own rules do you find the most difficult for **you** to
  follow?
  
  also, what do you do (if anything) to actively try to improve on this and
  enhance your discipline?
• Asked by Ryan4891 - 1 months ago - 2 answers - 1035 views
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• A: I try for the most part, and have became considerably better at it, as my trading
  mentality and skills have matured....Never SELL a position on a down day, unless the
  circumstances absolutely make it necessary......And viceverse....try to never BUY on an UP
  day.....like today for instance.....And never ENTER a position or leave it at once (in a
  single trade) with commissions on on-line trades being as cheap as they are today (as
  compared to the $200 buck comisssions of the 1980's) it is to the daytraders benifit to
  use the low cost of trades to his or her beinifit......scaling in....scaling out!
  
  
  
  Also, two words I hardley ever use are >>>>> NEVER and ALWAYS more
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• Q: Dan, and everyone else:
  
  I typically dont do this, but im just curious enough to ask...
  
  when people lay claims such as
  
  'So logic, common sense and irrefutable facts support the contention that an
  already weak
  economy is being damaged by a socialist agenda'
  
  as Dan did, do we have any **facts** to back up these cute claims?
  
  I issue a challenge to all on here. let us do some work, and go back to the
  starting of this country and its markets, and track to see how true this is--or
  isnt.
  
  let us attempt to find a true and statistically valid correlation between
  political party and market performance...or GDP performance
  
  let us find a statistically valid correlation between higher or lower taxes and
  greater GDP and market performance.
  
  i challenge anyone to bring to me **their own work** on this. i dont want some
  copy and paste link from a google search, but the real work.
  
  i challenge anyone to look at duration and rate of unemployment and correlate it
  to political parties.
  
  of course im issuing this challenge for a reason. partly that ive actually done
  the work. but mainly because a bi-party system (or believing in either side of
  it) is the most outlandish form of ignorance i can think of.
  
  believing is a key word there. if you can PROVE IT THROUGH THE FACTS OF HISTORY,
  that is a different case. but to believe this stuff because an econ teacher (who
  probably said Citi was value at $50) who spouted this stuff? its just
  unacceptable coming from intelligent people.
• Asked by Ryan4891 - 1 months ago - 22 answers - 580 views
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• A: Politics and money never mix well.
  
  A fundamental flaw in the system needs to be addressed which is:
  
  Politicians are suppose to work for the people, but their own financial motives ultimately
  govern their actions.
  
  How does one represent the people when money drives the individual?
  
  I think this flaw is what drags the efficiency of America (or most nations) down as seen
  in our increasing deficit... more
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• Q: Dan Fitz:
  
  do you have a favorite type of exit strategy that you like to employ?
  
  for yourself, is it always exit (for example) a long position if it makes a
  lower low, or do you take MA crosses as an exit? ATR? Bands? Channels etc.
  
  i use all of those already (depending on the system) but just curious as to if
  you have a favorite.
• Asked by Ryan4891 - 1 months ago - 2 answers - 232 views
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• A: Thanks for that answer, Dan. When a price is 2 or 3 standard deviations below its 20-day
  moving average, there's always a risk that it will just keep sliding down the lower band,
  instead of rallying back up toward the upper band. If it keeps sliding, there's usually a
  fundamental reason that is not known to the public. Blending your hybrid TAs while still
  keeping an eye on the fundamentals can mitigate that slider risk. more
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• Q: Dan Fitz:
  
  Every trader has their slumps. how do you--personally--get yourself out of a
  funk and back into a good rhythm?
• Asked by Ryan4891 - 1 months ago - 10 answers - 278 views
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• A: What a great question and answers..and very aptly timed as well..haven't done a fig in 4
  months except buy the GDX so far this year.. more
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• Q: Dan Fitz:
  
  when it comes to underlying indicators, if you prefer to specialize in one and
  be an expert on that one indicator.
  
  or
  
  if you prefer to use multiple indicators and perhaps arent an expert, but know
  them well.
  
  clearly combining the two is ideal, but also rare.
  
  just curious as to which school of thought you subscribe to as well as what you
  think the positive and negatives are for each.
  
  thanks
• Asked by Ryan4891 - 1 months ago - 1 answers - 955 views
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• A: Honestly, most indicators aren't of much use to me. MACD keeps you warm at night...but it
  is mostly a trend indicator. And it is a lagging indicator (all secondary indicators
  are). RSI, Stochastics, etc. They are informative, but really just add color more than
  light.
  
  I really get a lot out of using Bollinger Bands. I had the pleasure and honor of working
  with John Bollinger back in 2001-2002. He is a very, very brilliant man and I learned a
  lot. I got more than I gave in that relationship and I will be forever grateful to John
  for sharing some of his market experience with me.
  
  But I would feel very comfortable using only candlestick charts, Bollinger Bands, and
  volume bars.
  
  Everything else is optional.
  
  If you want one indicator -- pick Bollinger Bands. They provide vital information about
  volatility and the strength of trends. more
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