Posts by CLEMENTPLACE

• Q: "STOCK PICKING IS A DEAD ART FORM" WSJ tells how hedge fund mgrs are confused by
  traditional value based investing versus macro forces—big-picture market
  movers like the economy, politics and regulation. The later moving markets is
  changing the way they pick stocks. Lends me to believe Cramers approach to stock
  picking may need to be revised.
  
  WSJ By TOM LAURICELLA And GREGORY ZUCKERMAN
  
  The market turmoil has battered many investors over the past few years. But for
  stock pickers like Neuberger Berman LLC's David Pedowitz, it has made their
  entire investing approach feel like an exercise in futility.
  
  Mr. Pedowitz buys and sells stocks based on research and analysis of individual
  companies. His investment strategy, he says, has been upended by a tidal wave of
  "macro" forces—big-picture market movers like the economy, politics and
  regulation.
  
  Lately, stocks have been moving up and down each day largely at the mercy of
  forces beyond a company's control. And that's wreaking havoc for traditional
  stock pickers. WSJ's Jason Bellini reports on the macro factors that are
  dominating the market.
  
  More and more investors aren't bothering to pore through corporate reports
  searching for gems and duds, but are trading big buckets of stocks, bonds and
  commodities based mainly on macro concerns. As a result, all kinds of
  stocks—good as well as bad—are moving more in lock step.
  
  "It's unbelievably frustrating," says Mr. Pedowitz, who helps manage $4.5
  billion for wealthy clients and has 25 years of investing experience. "It's
  enough to make you crazy."
  
  That kind of talk has become widespread on Wall Street as stock pickers discover
  that long-held investment strategies are no longer working very well.
  
  Some data suggest that stock pickers are having a harder time outperforming the
  market. Each year between 1995 and 2007, for example, on average, 50% of mutual
  funds focusing on large, fast-growth companies beat the Russell 1000 Growth
  Index, a benchmark for that category, according to Morningstar Inc. Over the
  past year, only about 24% of those funds beat that index.
  
  The stock portfolio Mr. Pedowitz helps run at Neuberger Berman has managed to
  stay ahead of the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index so far this year, he says,
  but its value has been whipped back and forth far more than usual.
  
  Stock pickers say macro forces began moving stocks in a big way during the 2008
  financial crisis, and that has continued this year following the European debt
  crisis. Traders also are focusing on the potential for a double-dip recession to
  hit corporate profits; on government deficits; and especially on what central
  banks will do about stimulus programs that pumped cash into the economy.
  
  "Stock picking is a dead art form. Macro themes dominate the market now more
  than ever." -- Jim Bianco
  
  "The lesson that I have learned is that it isn't reasonable to be agnostic about
  the big picture." -- David Einhorn
  
  A host of other factors is contributing to the macro trend. The rise of
  exchange-traded funds, which typically track broad market indexes or benchmarks,
  has made it easier for investors to make broad bets on commodities, bonds and
  currencies. Such funds now account for 30% of daily stock-trading volume.
  Individual investors and pension funds have been pulling money out of stocks,
  leaving shares more vulnerable to trading by hedge funds with short time
  horizons.
  
  Whether such forces will alter the stock-investing landscape permanently is
  anyone's guess.
  
  "Stock picking is a dead art form," contends James Bianco of Bianco Research.
  "Macro themes dominate the market now more than ever."
  
  Some stock pickers say the current macro focus is only temporary, and will
  generate great investment opportunities simply because companies with different
  outlooks shouldn't be moving in lock step long-term. Eventually, they say,
  stocks will move in line with their fundamental values.
  
  "When you have securities that are all moving in the same direction, that by its
  nature opens up opportunities," says Cindy Sweeting, one of the managers on the
  $17.3 billion Templeton Growth Fund.
  
  
  
  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704190704575489743387052652.html?m
  od=WSJ_hps_MIDDLETopStories
• Asked by Clementplace - 1 months ago - 13 answers - 1774 views
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• A: mee too....i keep getting in too early and get out with small profits right before the
  stocks break out.....this year i'm trying to be more greedy....dam market hates
  me...that's why it's flat.....lol. more
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• Q: POT! What a pleasant surprise, but now takeover turning hostile by BHP and
  across borders . .. . still holding though, as well as AGU.
• Asked by Clementplace - 1 months ago - 1 answers - 280 views
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• A: Congrats, again! Clementplace. You've had a good streak lately. Well done. csyung. more
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• Q: now if they could just get rid of the spam posts, like three hundred pair of
  shoes post or the earn 200% post below. Ugh!
• Asked by Clementplace - 1 months ago - 2 answers - 296 views
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• A: like i said if u can make 200% a day why the hell r u coming on here every single day
  advertising your stupid web page. please get ride of this spammer more
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• Q: Wow, has anyone noticed the new content on this site: tools with upgrades and
  downgrades, several great analysis under "articles", all current, which for sure
  is new compared to the "old" site. I'm pleasantly impressed. Sorry for not
  noticing earlier! Check it...
• Asked by Clementplace - 1 months ago - 4 answers - 294 views
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• A: better late than never....though i bet traffic might return if we went back to red and
  green...the blue hurt old people's eyes. more
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• Q: looks like SGY is making a big move. Ya bring it on!
• Asked by Clementplace - 1 months ago - 1 answers - 393 views
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• A: Nice one, Clementplace, congrats. csyung. more
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• Q: Scott - can you explain these updates on real money columnist column. They are
  performed daily for nasdaq and russell. Below is sampling---
  
  
  Bob Byrne
  Russell Update
  7/26/2010 9:29 AM EDT
  Russell traders will want to keep an eye on 648 and 658.50. All trading above
  648 bullish and there is very little reason to expect traders to fade the
  current strength unless momentum slows towards 658.50...
  
  (Tf) 664.20 = (IWM) 66.61 M
  
  658.50 = 66.04 M/S
  
  648 = 65 S
  
  645 = 64.68 M
  
  638.40 = 64.02 M
  
  635.60 = 63.74 M
  
  628.60 = 63.04 M/S
• Asked by Clementplace - 1 months ago - 2 answers - 350 views
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• A: what do "M" and "M/S" mean? more
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• Q: New Question: Good analysis by Hussman
  
  http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc100706.htm
• Asked by Clementplace - 1 months ago - 0 answers - 161 views
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• Q: this seems to make sense . . .
  "Comments on the Market and Investment Strategies" by John Reese
  Founder & CEO, Validea Capital Management
  
  The rally that ran from March 2009 to April 2010 was so swift and strong that
  investors were confronted with little adversity along the way. Yes, there were a
  few 5%-7% dips, but they generally were so brief that by the time any major fear
  set in, the market had reversed itself and was again heading higher.
  
  As a result, the past couple months have given investors the first real taste of
  adversity since the crash of 2008 and its aftermath. Not surprisingly, many seem
  to be stricken with recency bias -- the tendency to take events of the recent
  past and extrapolate them into the future. Back in 2008, the market tumbled --
  and then continued to tumble after it had fallen to normal correction and bear
  market levels. With the market down about 15% in the current correction, many
  fear the same will occur, with this being just the first leg of another historic
  plunge.
  
  But while numerous challenges remain for the market and economy, it's important
  to keep in mind that many of the factors that triggered the '08 crash simply
  aren't present today. Back then, companies -- the entities behind the stocks
  that make up the market -- were leveraged to the hilt. But in the
  year-and-a-half since, financial firms have written off billions of dollars in
  bad debt. Non-financials have streamlined operations, preparing for what some
  had feared would be a second Great Depression, and now boast record-high cash
  levels. There are still problems -- some financials are still holding plenty of
  bad debt, for example -- but all in all, Corporate America is far better off
  than it was leading up to the 2008 crash.
  
  So are valuations. Heading into the third quarter of 2008, the S&P 500 traded
  for about 18.4 times trailing 12-month operating earnings, and more than 24
  times as-reported TTM earnings. Today, it sells for about 15.5 times TTM
  operating earnings, and about 16.6 times as-reported TTM earnings.
  
  All of that doesn't mean you should be a raging bull, snatching up any shares
  you can get your hands on. But it does offer a backdrop against which smart,
  rational stock-picking that focuses on solid firms with cheap shares should be
  rewarded.
• Asked by Clementplace - 1 months ago - 3 answers - 221 views
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• A: gucci sneakers hot sale for you at gucci
  outlet,there have also have gucci handbags for
  you! more
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• Q: NEW from TS - - - Some good Hedge Fund daily, and monthly performance data by
  their individual holdings. Wow! (Info only)
  
  http://www.tickerspy.com/hedge_funds.php
• Asked by Clementplace - 1 months ago - 2 answers - 345 views
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• A: oh and CNBC but thats mobile app on iphone. more
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• Q: What a day! I think the Russel was up over 3%.
  
  Doug Kass is calling Tuesday the low point of the year . . . which would suggest
  a rash of buying is appropriate. There always needs to be an entry point. Is
  this the entry time to beef up positions in FIN? Materials? or Tech?
  
  It usually doesn't take log for market to take off, its already back over 10k.
  You snooze, you loose. Any thoughts?
• Asked by Clementplace - 1 months ago - 4 answers - 385 views
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• A: well i am still all long here ,i bought in at 1042 all the way down.we r still over sold
  and can run to 1100 possible.we r way to negitive here right now for the short term .but
  longer term i disagree with kass,i think we can head below 1000 given the problems in euro
  and the major slow down here in the u.s. we will have to get through earnings season
  before we truly know the next direction. though i am staying long here until at least 1075
  as we r over due for a big bounce more
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