Unusual Volume System
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DESCRIPTION:

Date updated:03-11-2007

BUY: if a stock has 50% higher than normal volume AND its up 1% on the day. Buy at the open the next morning (we will have triggers every day in System Trades of the Day and in the Unusual Volume list on Today's Lists).

SELL: if the stock is up 2 days in a row, sell at the open the next day. Note that you could own the stock then for only one day.

To the left are some sample stocks that have worked well in the system.

Results:

Since 1997 there's been 8821 occurrences on the Nasdaq 100 stocks. 5771 successes for a 65% success rate. Average return of 1.1% per trade. Average holding period of 3.98 days.

Code (using Wealth-Lab, click on the Fidelity ads to learn more about WL. I'm not trying to shill the product but I use it for all of these systems):

{$I 'Unadjust Splits'}
var hSMA, hSMAPct, UnadjPriceSer: integer;
var Bar, p: integer;
hSMA := SMASeries( #Volume, 20 );
hSMAPct := MultiplySeriesValue( hSMA, 1 + (20/100) );
UnadjPriceSer := UnAdjustedSplitSeries( #Close );
PlotSeriesLabel( hSMA, 1, #Teal, #Thick, 'SMA(#Volume,20)' );
PlotSeriesLabel( hSMAPct, 1, #Teal, #Dotted, 'SMA(#Volume,20)+20%' );
if true then
PlotSeries( UnadjPriceSer, 0, #Gray, #Thin );

for Bar := 20 to BarCount - 1 do
begin
if LastPositionActive then
begin
p := LastPosition;
if priceclose(Bar) > priceclose(Bar - 1) then
if priceclose(bar - 1) > priceclose(Bar - 2) then
sellatmarket(bar + 1, p, '');
end
else
begin
if not LastPositionActive then
begin
if Volume( Bar ) > SMA(Bar - 1, #Volume, 20) * 1.5 then
// if Volume( Bar ) < SMA(Bar - 1, #Volume, 20) * 1.5 then
begin
if priceclose(bar) > priceclose(bar - 1) * 1.01 then
begin
BuyAtMarket( Bar + 1, '0' );
end;
end;
end;
end;
end;

symbol name last price % change open
  • +
  • AKAM
    Akamai Technologi
  • $22.19
  • +2.31%
  • $21.54

67 successes out of 98 occurrences, 68% success rate, 3.3% average return per trde. NOTE: these are just example stocks and how they've done in the system. For the updated trades every day see the System Trades of the Day portfolio or the Today's Lists portfolio, "Stocks up on Unusual Volume".

People owning AKAM also tend to own: CMGFCXGOOGJECRIGTJXAPA

  • +
  • AMAT
    Applied Materials
  • $11.61
  • -3.73%
  • $11.82

61 successes out of 78 occurrences (78% success rate), 2.36% average return per trade.

People owning AMAT also tend to own: AMTAMXBIDUFMCNKRYRACKSTP

  • +
  • GOOG
    Google Inc.
  • $428.40
  • +0.43%
  • $426.74

21 successes out of 29 occurrences, 71% success rate, 1.23% average return per trade.

People owning GOOG also tend to own: AAPLAMDCSCODELLIBMINTCMSFT

  • +
  • INTU
    Intuit Inc.
  • $27.72
  • +0.33%
  • $27.50

75 successes out of 106 occurrences. 70%, 1.75% per trade

People owning INTU also tend to own: AIGBACCPWRDISFWLTGS

  • +
  • MNST
    Mnst
  • $0.00
  • N/A
  • $N/A

96 successes out of 138 occurrences, 70% success rate, 1.72% per trade.

People owning MNST also tend to own: MCOMHPAUEEMKNOTRATEPRAA

  • +
  • MRVL
    Marvell Technolog
  • $11.16
  • -8.00%
  • $11.56

61 successes out of 86 occurrences, 71% success rate, 2.51% return per trade

People owning MRVL also tend to own: AIGBACCPWRDISFWLTGS

  • +
  • ORCL
    Oracle Corporatio
  • $20.35
  • +2.16%
  • $19.77

66 out of 88, 75% success rate, 1.8% avg return per trade

People owning ORCL also tend to own: AAPLAMDCSCODELLGOOGIBMINTC

  • +
  • RIMM
    Research In Motio
  • $82.61
  • +0.56%
  • $82.02

78/117, 66% succ. rate, 2.54% avg return per trade

People owning RIMM also tend to own: AAPLAPAAUYBPCCMECOP

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Simulated using 5% of equity per trade on the Nasdaq 100 stocks from 1997-2006

Prd Starting % Return
1/2/1997 51.37
1/2/1998 71.41
1/4/1999 155.26
1/3/2000 70.56
1/2/2001 61.62
1/2/2002 8.54
1/2/2003 60.26
1/2/2004 32.78
1/3/2005 16.57
1/3/2006 10.23

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