The Christmas System Portfolio - Stockpickr! Your Source for Stock Ideas

The Christmas System

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DESCRIPTION:

Date updated:08-25-2009

The Christmas System: A system that trades only 2 weeks every year, based on the idea that retail stocks (as measured by membership in the S&P Retail Index) have a high tendency to bounce back from selloffs during the end of the holiday shopping season.

The system triggers a buy everytime a retail stock has a down 2% day in the last 2 weeks of december. One buys the stock at the next days open and sells it at the close 5 days later.

Results: Simulated on all members of the S&P Retail Index since 2000 from December 15th to the 31st. Simulated using 5% of equity per trade.

Number of Trades: 122 trades, 91 successes (74.5%)

Average Return per trade: 4.98%

Starting Capital: $100,000.00
Ending Capital: $133,120.41

Simulated Using Wealth-Lab, a product of Fidelity.

JWN
Nordstrom Inc
$34.11
+0.32%
$34.51

7 of 7 occurences have gone up for an average return of 8.99%

People owning JWN also tend to own: AAPL AMR COST DE GOOG GS ITA

JCP
Penney J C Co Hol
$24.75
+1.85%
$24.675

6 of 7 occurences have gone up for an average return of 9.66%

People owning JCP also tend to own: AAPL ADBE BBY CMCSA GOOG MDT ORCL

GPS
Gap Inc
$19.93
+1.32%
$19.86

7 of 9 occurences have gone up for an average return of 8.79%

People owning GPS also tend to own: GM MO AAPL ABCO AMTD ARII AXP

BBY
Best Buy Co Inc
$35.98
+1.44%
$35.72

8 of 12 occurences have gone up for an average return of 8.44%

People owning BBY also tend to own: AXP BK BMY COF CSCO DELL DEO

CC
Cc
$0.00
N/A
$N/A

System Triggered a buy at the open of December 20 10 of 11 occurences have gone up for an average return of 5.84%

People owning CC also tend to own: PACT YHOO AMZN BBY DELL EBAY MSFT

TJX
T J X Cos Inc
$37.91
+0.64%
$38.13

4 of 4 occurences have gone up for an average return of 8.38%

People owning TJX also tend to own: AKAM CMG FCX GOOG JEC RIG MSFT

BIG
Big Lots Inc
$29.77
+1.95%
$29.47

7 of 8 occurences have gone up for an average return of 5.66%

People owning BIG also tend to own: BTH DLTR ECLG GPN KMX MDRX MS

WMT
Wal Mart Stores
$53.25
+0.60%
$53.21

5 of 5 occurences have gone up for an average return of 5.97%

People owning WMT also tend to own: ABT DGX EPD FMD GSK JNJ JOSB

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2000: 8.99%
2001: 8.96%
2002: 1.68%
2003: 7.82%
2004: 1.60%
2005: 0.39%
[Reminder: this system is only active 2 weeks of each year]

(click Chart for larger view)

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