• Answers
• Articles
• Top Performing Portfolios
• Top Rated Portfolios
• About Stockpickr

• Professional Portfolios
• Forums
• Do-It-Yourself Portfolios
• Video
• How to Use Stockpickr

• Spotlight Portfolios
  • Warren Buffett's Holdings
  • Top 5 Large-Cap Stocks
  • Financial Winners & L...
  • Top 10 Insider Buys and S...
  • I'm Feeling Lucky
  • Cramer's Take on Headline...
  • Consumer Goods Short-Sque...
  • 'Barron's' Smart Money St...
  • Dividend Stocks for the Week
  • Rocket Stocks
  • Cramer's Restaurant Stocks
• Active Trader
  • System Trades of the Day
  • Unusual Volume System
  • The Mega Gap System
  • The Takeover Targets S...
  • First Day of the Month
  • The QQQQCrash+ with St...
  • The QQQQ Crash Plus
  • The Blizzard System
  • The Last Week of the Year
  • The QQQQ Sweet Spot
  • More Traders>>
• Most Viewed Portfolios
  • Warren Buffett
  • George Soros
  • T. Boone Pickens - BP ...
  • Carl Icahn
  • Renaissance Technologies
  • Mohnish Pabrai
  • Atticus Capital
  • Prince Al-Waleed
  • SAC Capital
  • Seth Klarman - Baupost...
  • More>>
• Today's List of Portfolios
  • TheStreet.com TV Video...
  • TSC Ratings Downgrades
  • TSC Ratings Upgrades
  • Analyst Downgrades
  • Analyst Upgrades
  • Rising on Unusual Volume
  • Stocks With Unusual Op...
  • 52-Week Lows
  • 52-Week Highs
  • Biggest % Losers
  • More>>
• My Stockpickr

Date updated:07-31-2007

This is a pattern on SPY.This patterns trigger's a BUY at the open and SELL at the close on the first day of the month if the following occurs (since 1997):

Pattern:
- if the last two days of the prior month were down: 24 occurrences, 18 successful trades (75%) for an average return per trade of 0.63%

These are impressive returns considering that SPY has been down an average of -0.02% per day since 1997.

Despite the relatively small number of occurrences the results are statistically significant due to the difference between the average return in these results and the average return normally for SPY. To the left are some more interesting stats on the different ETFs for the various indices.

• Trades
• Equity Curve
• Comments

• 
• SPY
  S&p Dep Receipts
• $94.85
• 0.00%
• $94.40

• Analysis
• related news
• charts
• community
• stats
• recently added by

See results to the right.

People owning SPY also tend to own: DIAGOOGGRMNQQQQRHATUNYHOO

• 
• IWM
  Ishare Rus 2000 I
• $52.78
• 0.00%
• $51.96

• Analysis
• related news
• charts
• community
• stats
• recently added by

If the last 2 days of the prior month were down, and IWM is gapping up at the open on the first day of them month then buying at the open on the first day of the month and holding until the close has resulted in 10 out of 11 successful trades since 1999 with an average return per trade of +0.77%

People owning IWM also tend to own: IVVVPLBRK-BDIADVYEWHEWJ

• 
• QQQQ
  Powershares Excha
• $36.44
• +0.14%
• $36.19

• Analysis
• related news
• charts
• community
• stats
• recently added by

Same pattern as above: 9 out of 13 successful trades for an average return of 0.59%

People owning QQQQ also tend to own: DIAGOOGGRMNRHATSPYUNYHOO

• 
• SMH
  Ml Semicond Hldr1
• $21.48
• 0.00%
• $21.95

• Analysis
• related news
• charts
• community
• stats
• recently added by

Same pattern as IWM and QQQQ above, 7 successful trades out of 11 occurrences since SMH started trading in 2000 for an average return of +1.19% per trade. The last trade triggered on the first day of 2006 and was successful: +2.65% gain.

People owning SMH also tend to own: ATVICCJCELGCRZODSXDVNEMC