First Day of the Month
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DESCRIPTION:

Date updated:07-31-2007

This is a pattern on SPY.This patterns trigger's a BUY at the open and SELL at the close on the first day of the month if the following occurs (since 1997):

Pattern:
- if the last two days of the prior month were down: 24 occurrences, 18 successful trades (75%) for an average return per trade of 0.63%

These are impressive returns considering that SPY has been down an average of -0.02% per day since 1997.

Despite the relatively small number of occurrences the results are statistically significant due to the difference between the average return in these results and the average return normally for SPY. To the left are some more interesting stats on the different ETFs for the various indices.

symbol name last price % change open
  • +
  • SPY
    S&p Dep Receipts
  • $138.90
  • -0.19%
  • $138.62

See results to the right.

People owning SPY also tend to own: ATIBCOCHAPCMCDFGFTIFWLT

  • +
  • IWM
    Ishare Rus 2000 I
  • $66.14
  • -2.56%
  • $68.83

If the last 2 days of the prior month were down, and IWM is gapping up at the open on the first day of them month then buying at the open on the first day of the month and holding until the close has resulted in 10 out of 11 successful trades since 1999 with an average return per trade of +0.77%

People owning IWM also tend to own: IVVVPLBRK-BDIADVYEWHEWJ

  • +
  • QQQQ
    Powershares Qqq T
  • $48.21
  • -0.39%
  • $48.04

Same pattern as above: 9 out of 13 successful trades for an average return of 0.59%

People owning QQQQ also tend to own: ABTBKCALCSCODEEPPEWH

  • +
  • SMH
    Ml Semicond Hldr1
  • $31.74
  • -0.06%
  • $31.53

Same pattern as IWM and QQQQ above, 7 successful trades out of 11 occurrences since SMH started trading in 2000 for an average return of +1.19% per trade. The last trade triggered on the first day of 2006 and was successful: +2.65% gain.

People owning SMH also tend to own: ATVICCJCELGCRZODSXDVNEMC

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09/27/2007 19:20 PM CDT Asked by chico92100
Are u basing it on fosback?

05/01/2007 13:04 PM CDT Asked by Chris Radigan
When was this system first posted to the website? By my spreadsheet, the last time this worked was 2/1/06 and has had 3 losses in a row, and maybe a fourth today.

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