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3 Stocks That Will Double by Year-End - 205712 views
When a stock has these characteristics:
- analyst expectations going up
- lots of cash and no debt
- low P/E ratios
- solid revenue and earnings growth
- the winds of demographics at its back
it's usually a great bargain. Why do bargains like this exist? Because everyone has blindly kept their fingers on the sell button.
I spoke to a friend of mine who is a young trader at a multibillion-dollar mutual fund family. “When we get redemptions,” he said, “we have to sell everything we can. We need to raise cash that day.”
So it isn't about price, it isn't about dividends, P/E ratios, growth -- if it moves, kill it. Consequently, some very good stocks have been cut in half or more.
Well, the market has gotten too cheap, the mutual fund redemptions will stop, and these solid companies will recover their ground lost and then some. Also, what I like about these stocks is that they are not as widely followed as a Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT) or Amazon (AMZN).
Baidu (BIDU) might be a great company, for instance, but everyone knows every little nuance of the stock. Apple (AAPL), as another example, will probably go up because of this 3G iPhone, but every hedge fund in the world is already gaming it.
It's time to find the stocks that are a little under the radar but are solid doubles over the next six months.
Here they are:
Cynosure (CYNO): I don’t care how many foreclosures there are and how much the dollar weakens. People will spend whatever it takes to look good. Cynosure develops everything from laser wrinkle treatments to tattoo removal to anti-cellulite treatments to all sorts of anti-aging treatments.
It has $60 million cash in the bank, with no debt. It trades for only 8 times EBITDA, with 41% year-over-year growth in revenues and 128% year-over-year growth in earnings with more expected according to all the analysts. Despite the economic environment, analyst expectations for next year’s earnings have actually gone up in the past 90 days. This stock was at $45 earlier this year, it's at $20 now because of the market selloff, and it's going back to $40. See you there.
Asset Acceptance Capital (AACC): Sadly, I’m not so sure this stock will double, simply because it's so cheap right now that it might get acquired. The company, founded in 1962, collects on bad credit card debt. It buys the debt from banks and credit card companies for pennies on the dollar and makes money if it collects more than it pays for the debt.
The company has been through this before: recessions, stagflation, booms and so on. It knows what it's doing. But investors think that because we are in a difficult economy, it might be hard for AACC to collect. This might be true, but what happens is that the debt the company pays for actually becomes up to 20% to 40% cheaper, making it much more profitable for AACC to collect. AACC trades for just three times cash coming in, so the stock more than fully discounts the worry of a lagging economy. Also, it has recurring revenues based on automatic payment plans, so its growth is partially predictable off of this. The recent $500 tax rebate will boost income in the coming quarters.
Finally, super hedge fund Nierenberg Investment has been buying up stock in
the upper $9s.
VSE (VSEC): VSE provides consulting, systems integration, management consulting and more to the U.S. government and military. Almost every branch of the military has benefited from VSE since it started in 1959.
This is truly a case of throwing out the baby with the bathwater. VSE's long-range government contracts are secure. Revenue has gone up every year for five years. Income has gone up every year at an annualized 63%-a-year increase. EPS has gone up every year for five years. The directors of the company have been buying millions of dollars worth of stock with their personal money (insiders now own 35% of the company). The company has a P/E ratio of just 10.
And, finally, my favorite hedge fund to piggyback, Renaissance Technologies , owns millions of dollars worth of the stock and is one of the company’s largest shareholders.
Watch for an article on three more stocks I think will double, coming later this week.
A note from James Altucher:
Every weekend I send an email to Jim Cramer and several hedge fund managers about the most interesting portfolios posted on Stockpickr that week. Usually those portfolios not only list stocks according to a theme but also offer significant analysis as to why the stocks are cheap.
Here are some examples:
Here's the challenge: Build a portfolio at Stockpickr.com with great analysis, and send me the link. Each great portfolio (with analysis) will get posted on TheStreet.com with your byline (as a "Stockpickr Guest Columnist") and will be included in my email I send to Jim and the other
hedge fund managers on my list.